Friday, September 23, 2011
NFL Picks - Week 3: Because Matt Stafford just might be on his way to becoming the best QB in the NFL
Week 2 NFL Results: 11-3-2
NFL Results Season to Date: 18-10-3
Week 2 College Football Results: 1-3
College Football Results Season to Date: 2-6-1
Week 3 NFL Picks (winners in parentheses):
Cincinnati vs. San Francisco (San Francisco, road, +2.5) Alex Smith, or Andy Dalton? Alex Smith, or Andy Dalton? I'm going to reluctantly take Alex Smith and the 49ers, simply because they have a decent defense and they're getting points.
New England vs. Buffalo (New England, road, -9) Buffalo is something like 1-19 in their last ten years against New England. If Terrence McGee is out for the Bills secondary due to an injury, I look for Tom Brady and the Patriots to throw all day long.
New Orleans vs. Houston (New Orleans, home, -3.5) The Crawfish Bowl. New Orleans residents always complain that the biggest and best crawfish get shipped off to Houston. This week New Orleans strikes back. While I like the Texans this season, their secondary does not match-up well with the Saints receivers.
Philadelphia vs. New York Giants (New York Giants, road, +8) The Giants secondary and wide receiving corps are in shambles, but I still think that they can cover 8 points against a division rival with their running game and the Eagles only a Michael Vick concussion away from Mike Kafka.
Cleveland vs. Miami (Miami, road, +2.5) Miami has a talented secondary that has been shredded by good passing offenses thus far. Otherwise, their defense, namely their front seven, is pretty solid. I just don't think that Cleveland has the vertical passing game to make Vonte Davis and Sean Smith pay like New England and Houston did.
Denver vs. Tennessee (Denver, road, +7) Chris Johnson didn't work out during his hold-out. Reports out of Denver have leaked that they already have decided that former 1st round pick Knowshon Moreno will not be back with the team next season. Matt Hasselbeck and Kyle Orton are the same person. I like Kenny Britt better than any receiver Denver has, but not 7 points worth, all else considered.
Detroit vs. Minnesota (Detroit, road, +3.5) The Lions, like New England, are running sets with two athletic tight ends to take advantage of how nearly every team in the NFL has gone to more athletic, but smaller safeties. Tony Scheffler and Brandon Pettigrew are both bigger than any safety that lines up against them, and they're both faster than any linebacker who tries to cover them. After decades in which the Lions were slow to the trigger and and adopted philosophies like the West Coast Offense and the Tampa-2 after they had already run their course, other teams in the NFL now have to adapt to something that the Lions are doing. And by the way, Matt Stafford just might be on his way to becoming the best quarterback in the NFL.
Carolina vs Jacksonville (Jacksonville, road, +3.5) With the Jaguars starting a rookie QB in Blaine Gabbert, I look for them to go conservative and establish the run with Maurice Jones-Drew. With the Panthers also starting a rookie QB in Cam Newton, I think I'll take the points.
San Diego vs. Kansas City (San Diego, home, -14.5) The Chiefs literally imploded last week with personal fouls, season ending injuries to their best offensive and defensive players, and clear divide between their head coach and offensive coordinator, this team is giving up. I don't think you can put a line high enough on this game.
New York Jets vs. Oakland (New York Jets, road, -3.5) I hate this line, I hate this line, I hate this line. I'm taking the Jets, but I have a bad feeling about them playing at the Raiders this week.
Baltimore vs. St. Louis (Baltimore, road, -3.5) I'm disregarding the Ravens results against the Titans last week. The Rams have injuries a WR and RB, and Sam Bradford is struggling with Josh McDaniel's new offense. I like the Ravens to win this game rather handily.
Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta (Atlanta, road, +2.5) Aside from a late rally against the Vikings last week, the Buccaneers just haven't looked good this year. I have to take a good team in Atlanta if they are getting any points in this one.
Arizona vs. Seattle (Seattle, home, +3.5) I think I have to take Seahawks because they're a good team at home...maybe.
Green Bay vs. Chicago (Chicago, home, +3.5) I don't like the Bears offensive line against the Packers pass rush, but I do like 3.5 points for a home team that is pretty solid.
Pittsburgh vs. Indianapolis (Pittsburgh, home, -10) The Colts can't run and they can't pass...not even against mediocre teams. I think the Steelers defense will absolutely crush Kerry Collins and the limited Colts offense. I absolutely love this line.
Dallas vs. Washington (Washington, road, +6) I'm not sold that Tony Romo is healthy enough to play. As soon as Dante Hall forthrightly said that he would go after Romo's punctured lung and broken rib, Dallas magically announced that medical tests declared Romo's lung and rib as healed. A punctured lung and a broken rib healed in less than a week? I'm thinking more and more that this is a smokescreen, and that we're going to see Jon Kitna start this game, although I'd love to see Romo and Rex Grossman try to match each other in stupid interceptions. In the mean time, the Pigskins are getting things done with a conservative offense and an underrated defense, so I'll take the points.
College Football's Top Games of the Week:
LSU vs. West Virginia (LSU, road, -5.5) Even in Morgantown, the Mountaineers are no match for LSU.
Texas A and M vs. Oklahoma State (Oklahoma St., road, +4.5) I can't see Oklahoma State losing this game, let alone getting points.
Michigan vs. San Diego State (San Diego State, road, +10.5) In the Brady Hoke Bowl, Kyle Turley gets his revenge with an outright win by his beloved Aztecs. Turley may be a terrible musician, but he was right about Hoke...and make no mistake about it, San Diego State is the more talented team here.
Clemson vs. Florida State (Florida State, road, +2.5) It's a little weird to talk about The Bowden Bowl without any Bowden's involved. Clemson has unimpressive wins over 3 mediocre teams. Florida State played Oklahoma tough last week. I think they not only cover, but they leave Death Valley with the win.
Alabama vs. Arkansas (Alabama, home, -11.5) Maybe Arkansas was looking ahead last week, but they struggled with Troy. They also didn't look very good on the football field. Alabama is simply loaded, so unless Arkansas comes out clicking on all cylinders, I like the Crimson Tide to walk away with this one.
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