Thursday, October 15, 2009

NFL PICKS - Week 6

Week 5 NFL Results: 9-5
NFL Results Season to Date: 44-45

Week 5 College Football Results: 1-3
College Football Results Season to Date: 19-11

Week 5 This Is Why Results: 4-1
This is Why Results Season to Date: 13-6

Week 6 NFL Picks (winners in parentheses):

At Washington -6.5 Kansas City (Washington)
At Cincinnati -4.5 Houston (Cincinnati)
At Pittsburgh -14 Cleveland (Pittsburgh)
At Minnesota -3 Baltimore (Baltimore)
At Jacksonville -9.5 St. Louis (Jacksonville)
At New Orleans -3 NYG (NYG)
Carolina -3.5 At Tampa Bay (Carolina)
At Green Bay -13 Detroit (Green Bay)
Philly -14 At Oakland (Philly)
At Seattle -3 Arizona (Arizona)
At New York Jets -9.5 Buffalo (New York Jets)
At New England -9 Tennessee (New England)
At Atlanta -3.5 Chicago (Chicago)

Monday Night Football

At San Diego -3.5 Denver (Denver)

College Picks

At Ole Miss -22 UAB (Ole Miss)
Central Michigan -6.5 At Western Michigan (Central Michigan)
Miami -14.5 At Central Fla. (Miami)
Ohio State -13.5 At Purdue (Ohio State)
Georgia -7.5 At Vanderbilt (Georgia)

This is Why
Here are the pro and college lines that I would put money on, and why:

Baltimore +3 over MINNESOTA - Green Bay did not blitz or pressure Brett Favre two weeks ago. Last week St. Louis was incapable of blitzing him. I fully expect Baltimore to make Brett Favre as uncomfortable as possible in the pocket and force him to make mistakes. I think Baltimore wins this game even though it is being played in the Metrodome. In fact, any time Baltimore gets points this year there's a good chance I'll probably take them.

Philadelphia -14 over OAKLAND - This game highlights a couple of trends. AFC West bottom dwellers Oakland and Kansas City have struggled to cover even large spreads against good teams. NFC East elite teams like Philadelphia and New York have easily covered large spreads against poor teams. I'm taking Philadelphia in this one as my pick of the week.

New York Giants +3 over New Orleans - Much like the Ravens, if the Giants are getting points this season then sign me up. This is actually a great mactch up. New Orleans is at home with a prolific offense, but the Giants strong pass rush is going against a Saints team missing their starting left tackle. Additionally, how many times do we see an up and coming young team fall to the more established team that is used to playing in big games? At the very mimimum New York stays in this game by being able to run the ball, while I look for New Orleans to struggle on the ground against the Giants. Advantage New York.

NEW YORK JETS -9.5 over Buffalo - Buffalo is really struggling right now. While the Jets have lost two in a row, I think that their defense will rebound by putting "Revis Island" on Terrell Owens and keeping 8 in the box in order to stuff Buffalo's running game. Buffalo's defense has some pretty significant injuries, so I don't think the Jets will have any problem putting up enough points to cover this spread.

NEW ENGLAND -9 over Tennessee - Staying true to my words from last week, I am staying away from Tennessee until they prove to me that they can right the ship. A struggling team playing in Foxboro against Tom Brady with two possible rookie starting corners is a recipe for disaster. Even if Cortland Finnegan does manage to play, there will still be mismatch issues that Tennnessee will have to deal with between New England's wide receivers and their secondary.

Central Michigan -6.5 over WESTERN MICHIGAN - The game that sparked "The End of the World Party" is on. Western Michigan has a fairly decent football team, but Central Michigan is looking pretty special right now behind qb Dan Lefevour. I think CMU wins in a route in this in-state rivalry game.

1 comment:

  1. I continue to struggle with my pro football picks, but remain hot when it comes to college football. New England vs. Tennessee was my probably my best breakdown, while I wasn't even close on the Philly vs Oakland game.