Thursday, October 8, 2009

NFL PICKS - Week 5

Week 4 NFL Results: 6-8
NFL Results Season to Date: 35-40

Week 4 College Football Results: 3-2
College Football Results Season to Date: 18-8

Week 4 This Is Why Results: 2-2
This is Why Results Season to Date: 9-5

Week 5 NFL Picks (winners in parentheses):

Minnesota -9.5 At St. Louis (Minnesota)
Dallas -8.5 At Kansas City (Dallas)
At Carolina -3.5 Washington (Washington)
At Philly -15 Tampa Bay (Philly)
At NYG -16 Oakland (NYG)
At Buffalo -6 Cleveland (Cleveland)
At Baltimore -8.5 Cincinnati (Cincinnati)
Pittsburgh -10.5 At Detroit (Pittsburgh)
At San Fran -2.5 Atlanta (Atlanta)
New England -3.5 At Denver (New England)
At Arizona -5.5 Houston (Houston)
At Seattle even Jacksonville (Seattle)
At Indy -3.5 Tennessee (Indy)

Monday Night Football

New York Jets -1.5 At Miami (New York Jets)

College Picks

At Tennessee -2 Georgia (Georgia)
Florida -7.5 At LSU (LSU)
Michigan State -4.5 At Illinois (Michigan State)
At Ohio State -16 Wisconsin (Wisconsin)

This is Why
Here are the pro and college lines that I would put money on, and why. While last week I did not like many of the lines, I consider this week's lines to be some of the most favorable ever. The reason is that many of the top notch NFL teams are playing against some of the worst teams in the league, and at this point in the season I don't think the odds makers can set the betting lines high enough. Accordingly, I think the smart money is to take the favorites in the following David v. Goliath games:

Minnesota -9.5 over ST. LOUIS - Minnesota should be able to throw and run all over the St. Louis defense. Conversely, Minnesota's front four should be able to overwhelm the Rams' offensive line, allowing them to keep 8 in the box to shut down Steven Jackson, their only offensive threat.

PHILLADELPHIA -15 over Tampa Bay - Josh Johnson makes his second career start. Is there any worse scenario for an inexperienced quarterback than making a start against a blitz happy team IN Philladelphia? there isn't. This one could get ugly.

NEW YORK GIANTS -16 over Oakland - Even if Eli Manning is out with plantar fasciitis the Giants should be able to run all over the Oakland defense. The worst quarterback in the league, JaMarcus Russell, meets one of the best defenses in the league...on the road. This one could could get ugly too.

Pittsburgh -10.5 over DETROIT - Even if Matt Stafford is able to start Detroit will have a rookie quarterback trying to read a complicated blitz happy defense without having practiced this week. If Daunte Culpepper starts Detroit will have a rusty quarterback who is known to have problems reading complicated defenses. This one could also get ugly.

INDY -3.5 over Tennessee - Even though Tennessee typically plays Indianapolis tight, I have given up on the Titans until they prove me wrong. Peyton Manning and the Colts are playing good football right now, and if Tennesse starts two rookie corners as expected this one will get ugly.

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