Thursday, April 26, 2012

Final 2012 NFL Mock Draft: Your Complete Guide to the First Round



Here is my Final 2012 NFL Mock. It will be followed by any relevant updates up until the NFL Draft on April 26th.

My mock draft has been linked by The Football Fan Spot, Sports Jabber, DC Pro Sports ReportWalter Football, FF Toolbox, hailRedskins.com, The Football ExpertFantasy Football Help Desk, The Huddle Report, Niners Nation, EDS Football, NFL Mock Draft Central, NFL Pro Zach and No Limits Sportsline Fantasy Sports in their Mock Draft Databases. If you're a draftnik like me, be sure to click on their hyperlinks and check out all of their extensive NFL Draft related material.

This is not a mock draft where I attempt play general manager and substitute my own judgment for the 32 NFL teams. If you're looking for new insight on your favorite team, this is probably not your mock draft. If you want to know exactly what all the other teams in the league might be thinking, this is your site.

I do my best to research what particular players or positions each team may be targeting by searching the Internet for tips from reliable beat writers, NFL insiders and scouts in order to provide links and analysis as to why that team may be targeting a particular player.

1st Round

1. Indianapolis Colts - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford: With the Colts unwilling to pay a $28 million roster bonus to a quarterback coming off of four neck surgeries, and with Peyton Manning not wanting to take a pay cut to play through a major rebuilding project, this has been one of the better break-ups between a superstar and a franchise/city in recent history. Now that it’s official, Colts fans can embrace the Andrew Luck era.


2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis) – Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor: Having given up three first round picks and a second, the Redskins will draft Robert Griffin III. While Griffin doesn't have the command of a pro-style offense that Andrew Luck has, he has superior arm strength and accuracy, especially on the crucial passes in the NFL like the 20-yard out.


3. Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil, OT, USC: Rumors are starting to come out that GM Rick Spielman is not necessarily set on drafting USC T Matt Kalil with the third pick. In actuality, the Vikings are doing everything they can to try to induce the Buccaneers to trade up by feigning an interest in LSU CB Morris Claiborne, which is a trade scenario that would still allow the Vikings to select Kalil at #5. Unless Tampa Bay would really like to trade up and leap-frog Cleveland for the right to select Alabama RB Trent Richardson, the Bucs should be able to stay put at #5 and still get Claiborne, as Minnesota is still likely targeting Kalil as a premier left tackle while trying to gain an extra pick or two in the process.

http://m.startribune.com/sports/?id=136682723;
http://m.startribune.com/news/?id=136591293;

4. Cleveland Browns – Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama: The Browns are in the position to stay put and select one of the six impact players in this year’s draft. Cleveland would improve their running game with a franchise back in Trent Richardson and still be able to complete the skill position trifecta by targeting a wide receiver and a quarterback with their next two picks. However, if Cleveland truly values Richardson over WR Justin Blackmon and CB Morris Claiborne, they may want to consider striking a deal now to swap picks with Minnesota at #3 to assure that Tampa Bay does not leap-frog over them. In the event that happens, look for Claiborne as their fallback pick.

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2012/03/browns_and_nfl_draft_chat_with.html;
http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2012/03/lsu_cornerback_morris_claiborn.html;http://www.sacbee.com/2012/02/20/4277883/browns-prepare-for-combine.html;

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU: It would be hard to argue with Morris Claiborne or Trent Richardson at the #5 spot talent wise, but if Richardson is gone, do the Bucs really need another cornerback after signing Eric Wright to a big contract as a free agent? If Tampa Bay has Claiborne rated higher than or equal to Trent Richardson, they should ignore Minnesota's smokescreens to induce them to trade up. However, in the event that new Tampa Bay coach Greg Schiano truly does value a bell-cow back like Richardson over a corner like Claiborne, they should use Minnesota's over-eagerness to trade down against them and underpay pursuant to the Trade Value Chart to leap-frog Cleveland for the right to draft the top running back in the draft.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/bucs/content/thursday-chat-live-gary-shelton-1230;
http://www2.tbo.com/news/bucs/2012/feb/23/2/spsporto3-time-for-focus-to-shift-to-future-bucs-ar-361885/;

6. St. Louis Rams - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State: With the Rams having traded down from the #2 spot with Washington at #6, they have accumulated a bounty of extra picks and still might have the opportunity to select the elite go to wide receiver they covet for Sam Bradford in Justin Blackmon. While Minnesota and Cleveland have put up weak smokescreens regarding their potential interest in Blackmon to try and induce St. Louis to trade up, the Rams should be able to stand put and land their go-to receiver and keep their picks.


7. New York Jets (predicted trade with Jacksonville) – Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina: The Jets defense suffered last season due to a lack of pass rush from the edge and a lack of speed at safety. Melvin Ingram of South Carolina is an ideal 3-4 OLB in the Jet’s defensive scheme, but he no longer projects to last to the middle of the first round. Mark Barron of Alabama could also be a consideration for some much needed speed at safety, but he’s also rising up draft boards as the lone free safety worth drafting early in this year’s draft. The Jets at least appear interested in trying to trade up for one of those two players, with Ingram as their ideal target. Likewise, Jacksonville appears to be equally willing to trade down.






8. Miami Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A and M: With Jeff Ireland having missed out on Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, and every other free agent that they targeted, the Dolphins need to find a quarterback of the future. Ryan Tannehill, who played for Mike Sherman (Miami’s new offensive coordinator) in college certainly fits the system. In the event that Tannehill has already been selected or they feel he’s not worthy of a top 10 pick, the Dolphins could target an outside 3-4 pass rusher like South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram or Quinton Coples of North Carolina, but it appears that Miami owner Stephen Ross is pushing for Ireland to take Tannehill.


9. Carolina Panthers – Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State: The Panthers have a huge need at defensive tackle. Not only does Marty Hurney takes a best player available philosophy with the draft, but some draft insiders have Mississippi State DT Fletcher Cox ranked as high as the top six for the entire draft. While DT Dontari Poe of Memphis received the most notoriety for his athleticism at the Scouting Combine, Cox not only nearly matched him in terms of his workout, but he has the better game tape to back that workout up.


10. Buffalo Bills – Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College: Buffalo has addressed the deficiency they’ve had at defensive end over the past several seasons by signing Mario Williams and Mark Anderson in free agency. While they’ve had the same need at left tackle since Jason Peter left for Philadelphia, GM Buddy Nix is going to draft whoever the hell he wants, even if his rebuilding plan will still be in place long after he’s dead. There’s no question that Luke Kuechly’s coverage skills are ideally suited for New England’s two tight end attack in the AFC East, but unless the Bills draft a left tackle, even if that means reaching a bit for Riley Reiff of Iowa, they will not be contenders anytime soon.


11. Kansas City Chiefs – David DeCastro, G, Stanford: With the Chiefs having upgraded their offensive line by signing T Eric Winston, they would like to turn their attention to other areas, such as an ILB like Luke Kuechly of Boston College. However, if Kuechly’s not available, drafting G David DeCastro of Stanford would help transform a below average offensive line from last season into a potentially elite group, especially in terms of run blocking.


12. Seattle Seahawks – Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina: Seattle has needs at defensive end and linebacker, although GM John Schneider will take a best player available within Seattle’s system approach to the draft. If Luke Kuechly is off the board by #12, the Seahawks are said to have exhibited an interest in defensive ends Melvin Ingram of South Carolina and Nick Perry of USC. If Ingram is off the board, Coples could be the pick. Otherwise, the Seahawks are reportedly interested in trading down where they would target one of the remaining defensive ends at a better value, or Alabama linebacker Dont’a Hightower.


13. Arizona Cardinals – Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa: The Cardinals need to improve their offensive line, either at tackle or guard. If Buffalo passes on Iowa tackle Riley Reiff as it is now being rumored, it would be an ideal situation for the Cardinals. Even if Reiff does not beat out incumbent starter Levi Brown on the left side this year, he'd be an immediate upgrade on the right side until such time that he's ready to swap with Brown and take over on the left.


14. Dallas Cowboys – Mark Barron, S, Alabama: The Cowboys have improved their secondary with the signings of CB Brandon Carr and Brodney Poole, but they still have holes to fill at both positions. Additionally, they could use either a defensive end or a nose tackle, thereby allowing Jay Ratliff to move to the five-technique. While recent reports have the Cowboys eyeing Mississippi State DT Fletcher Cox, he may not make it to the 14th pick. In that case, look for Dallas to target someone like Alabama safety Mark Barron who can come in and make an immediate impact in their secondary. The question remains, will Barron be available when the Cowboys pick, with recent rumors linking him to Buffalo at #10. In the event that Barron and Cox off the board by the time the Cowboys pick, I'm hearing that their fallback plan is DT Michael Brockers of LSU. However, I'd be more intrigued with making a play for Quinton Coples of North Carolina and playing him as a 3-4 DE, where he could be the disruptive pass rusher from the interior that the Cowboys are looking for much like when he played DT in a 4-3 defense his Junior year at North Carolina.


15. Philadelphia Eagles – Michael Brockers, DT, LSU: With the Eagles addressing their glaring hole at linebacker by trading for Demeco Ryans, they can turn their attention to other positions. Ideally the Eagles would love for Fletcher Cox or Mark Barron to be available when they pick at #15, but that is looking less and less likely as those two players are moving up draft boards. The Eagles traditionally have invested their first round picks in offensive and defensive linemen, so if a run stuffing defensive tackle like Michael Brockers of LSU is available, he could be their pick. Trading up for Cox with Jacksonville at #7 also seems to be an option.


16. Jacksonville Jaguars (predicted trade with New York Jets) – Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina: With only six consensus impact players in the 2012 Draft, Jacksonville would love to trade down, and they may find a willing partner in the Jets in a deal that would likely cost New York their 2nd and 4th round picks pursuant to the Trade Value Chart. The Jaguars have recently expressed an interest in South Carolina CB Stephon Gilbert, and while he could be the pick for them at #7, he’d be a much better value if they can manage to trade down a few spots before selecting him.


17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland) – Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame: The Bengals need a WR to play opposite of A.J. Green with Jerome Simpson having signed with Minnesota as a free agent. If Michael Floyd makes it past the Jets at #16, look for Cincinnati to snatch him up. If not, cornerback, guard or defensive line are the likely positions that the Bengals will target with their two 1st Round picks.


18. San Diego Chargers – Nick Perry, OLB/DE, USC: The Chargers have plenty of needs, including pass rusher and safety. Offensive line is also a concern with the retirement of Kris Dielman. Courtney Upshaw of Alabama, Whitney Mercilus of Illinois and Nick Perry of USC would all be fits. Keep an eye on the Chargers making a play to trade up for Mark Barron of Alabama at safety as well, although his recent rise may make the price of doing so too costly.


19. Chicago Bears – Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois: Improving an aging offensive line would seem to be a priority for the Bears. However, with Mike Martz having been forced into retirement, new offensive coordinator and offensive line guru Mike Tice might be able to make do with the pieces that he currently has. With no true value left on the offensive line when they pick at #19, the Bears can address their outside pass rush with Whitney Mercilus of Illinois, who lead the nation in sacks last year.


20. Tennessee Titans – Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama: Even after signing Kamerion Wimbley, the Titans appear to be looking for help at defensive end. In the mid to later part of the first round they could find value in edge rushers like Nick Perry of USC or Courtney Upshaw of Alabama. A cornerback like Stephon Gilmore of South Carolina or Dre Kirkpatrick of Alabama could also be considerations with Courtland Finnegan having signed with the Rams in free agency.


21. Cincinnati Bengals – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama: The Bengals should look to upgrade their secondary at either corner or safety with at least one of their two first round picks. If Dre Kirkpatrick falls, he could join Leon Hall as a starter in what would become an extremely deep Bengals secondary. If Kirkpatrick doesn’t fall, Marvin Lewis is said to have his eye on Alabama linebacker Dont’a Hightower, or they could look to solidify their offensive line with Cordy Glenn of Georgia at G/T.


22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta) – Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor: While the Browns are definitely kicking the tires on QB Brandon Weeden of Oklahoma State, they expressed very little interest in free agent Matt Flynn, who would have fit their West Coast Offense perfectly. Accordingly, it doesn’t look as if they’re going to make a move to replace Colt McCoy in the first round of this year’s draft. If they land RB Trent Richardson with their first pick, a receiver like Kendall Wright of Baylor would give McCoy two explosive playmakers on offense to show whether or not McCoy's the man going forward, while they would still have the luxary of looking at a developmental QB like Weeden in the second round.


23. Detroit Lions – Cordy Glenn, T/G, Georgia: Offensive line and the secondary are Detroit's biggest areas of need. However, William Clay Ford, Jr., Martin Mayhew and Tom Lewand have quickly changed the culture in Detroit not by reaching for need, but by taking a best player available approach. Dre Kilpatrick and Janoris Jenkins have the talent at cornerback that the Lions will be looking for, but if Kirkpatrick is not available, and if Jenkins' character concerns do not fit with the Lions organization, they could look at a defensive end like Chandler Jones of Syracuse or a versatile lineman like Cordy Glenn of Georgia.


24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis: With Casey Hampton's health, contract and age starting to become a concern, Pittsburgh could be looking for a nose tackle to replace him, or a 3-4 defensive end that would enable Ziggy Hood to move inside. Dontari Poe of Memphis would be an ideal two-gap DT that Pittsburgh is looking for in their 3-4 defense. If Seattle doesn’t trade back or Baltimore doesn’t move up to grab ILB Dont’a Hightower of Alabama, he will also garner strong consideration from the Steelers.

http://plus.sites.post-gazette.com/index.php/pro-sports/steelers/116079-ed-bouchettes-steelers-chat-transcript-42412;
http://bleedblackandgold.com/blog/2012/01/26/could-the-casey-hampton-injury-push-steelers-towards-a-4-3-defense/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BleedBlackAndGold+%28Bleed+Black+and+Gold%29;
http://blogs.sites.post-gazette.com/index.php/sports/blog-n-gold/33399-prospect-watch-donta-hightower;
http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/sports/steelers/nt-poe-visits-could-be-steelers-no-1-pick-632060/

25. Denver Broncos – Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State: The Broncos have more needs than there is value to them at the #25 pick. Ideally, they'd probably like to trade out of the first round and accumulate more players at positions of need like running back, center, defensive tackle and in their secondary. Defensive tackle should be a deep position in the late first or early second round, and Jerel Worthy, Devon Still, Kendall Reyes or Brandon Thompson could all fill a need for the Broncos at that position if they stay put.

http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_20005784;

26. Jacksonville Jaguars (predicted trade with Houston) – Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech: While the Jaguars have a huge need at wide receiver, they no longer seem to be in the mix for Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon at #7. If they don’t stay at #7 or trade down and select Michael Floyd, whose character does not seem to fit Jacksonville’s draft philosophy, look for the Jaguars to take a receiver with their second pick in this year’s draft. With a growing interest in Georgia Tech’s Stephen Hill being reported, the Jags could be able to find a willing trade partner in Houston to trade back into the first round to select him. Moving up from #39 to #27 would likely cost Jacksonville a 3rd Round pick pursuant to the Trade Value Chart.


27. New England Patriots – Chandler Jones, OLB/DE, Syracuse: The Patriots are always in need of hybrid pass rushers in their 3-4 system. That need is even bigger this offseason with Kevin Carter coming off of an injury and Mark Anderson having left via free agency. Chandler Jones of Syracuse is a natural pass rusher. New England has not only met with Jones, but they’ve also asked him to remain quiet about their meeting, although he accidentally gushed about head coach Bill Belichick in a recent interview. Given New England's interest in Jones, it would not surprise me if they traded up to ensure that they get him even though questions remain about his ability to drop into coverage in a 3-4. If Jones is off the board, Shea McClellin of Boise State, Andre Branch of Clemson or Vinny Curry of Marshall are all talented pass rushers who’s skill-sets translate well to standing up in a 3-4 defense in the NFL, with plenty of quality defensive tackles who can play end in a 3-4 likely to be available at #31.


28. Green Bay Packers – Shea McClellin, OLB/DE, Boise State: Look for Green Bay to take the best defensive player available. A 3-4 defensive end could help free Clay Mathews, Jr. up like Cullen Jenkins did before leaving for Philadelphia a season ago via free agency. So would a pass rushing OLB to play opposite him, and Shea McCellin of Boise State, Chandler Jones of Syracuse and Vinny Curry of Marshall all fit that description. Of those players, the Packers are said have a particular interest in McClellin, who would be an ideal fit at OLB in their 3-4 system given that he has already proven that he can play in coverage in addition to getting to the passer with his high motor.


29. Baltimore Ravens - Dont'a Hightower, LB, Alabama: Baltimore takes a best player available approach when it comes to the draft, so a player like Dont'a Hightower of Alabama with a strong 1st Round grade may make more sense than drafting a player of need like C Peter Konz of Wisconsin. Hightower could step in and immediately play along side Ray Lewis on the strong side, and then ultimately replace him as the leader of the Ravens defense once he retires.

30. San Francisco 49ers – Kevin Zeitler, G, Wisconsin: The 49ers typical draft philosophy is to take the best player available on their draft board. However, San Francisco GM Trent Baalke recently said that he is targeting one specific player who he believes will be there when the 49ers pick at #30. Assuming he isn’t having fun with the media, that could mean reaching in terms of overall draft rating to fill a specific need for a starter at right guard. Wide receiver and defensive tackle could also come into play at this pick if San Francisco sticks with a BPA philosophy.


31. New England Patriots (from New Orleans) – Kendall Reyes, DT, UConn: The Patriots need to bolster the front of their 3-4 defense at end. While that position is particularly deep in this year’s draft, the Patriots are said to have their eyes on Kendall Reyes of UConn to play the five-technique.


32. New York Giants – Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama: The Giants will take a best player available approach to the draft. While Doug Martin has been receiving a lot of consideration of late in mock drafts, Giants beat writer Ralph Vacchiano just informed me that New York will likely go in a different direction. In the event that Georgia Tech WR Stephen Hill is not available, look for the Giants to target a pass rusher to ultimately replace Osi Umenyiora in the draft. Courtney Upshaw of Alabama would fill that need and give New York some added versatility on their defensive line.

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/giants/2012/04/and-with-the-32nd-pick-the-giants-will-select;
https://twitter.com/#!/TheBlueScreen/status/195549424410308610

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