Friday, November 6, 2009

NFL PICKS - Week 9

Week 8 NFL Results: 4-9
NFL Results Season to Date: 61-67-1

Week 8 College Football Results: 2-3
College Football Results Season to Date: 26-18

Week 8 This Is Why Results: 1-4
This is Why Results Season to Date: 20-14

Week 9 NFL Picks (winners in parentheses):

At Atlanta -10.5 Washington (Washington)
At Chicago -3 Arizona (Arizona)
Baltimore -3 At Cincinnati (Cincinnati)
At Indianapolis -8.5 Houston (Indy)
At Jacksonville -6.5 Kansas City (Jacksonville)
Green Bay -9.5 At Tampa Bay (Green Bay)
At New England -10.5 Miami (New England)
At New Orleans -14 Carolina (New Orleans)
At Seattle -10 Detroit (Detroit)
At New York Giants -5 San Diego (San Diego)
At San Francisco -4 Tennessee (San Francisco)
At Philadelphia -3 Dallas (Dallas)

Monday Night Football

Pittsburgh -3 At Denver (Denver)

College Picks

Boise State -21 At Louisiana Tech (Louisiana Tech)
Oregon -6.5 At Stanford (Oregon)
At California -7 Oregon State (California)
At Alabama -8 LSU (LSU)
At Notre Dame -11 Navy (Notre Dame)

This is Why

Here are the pro and college lines that I would put money on, and why:

LOUISIANA TECH -21 over Boise State - I don't think that I have ever picked against Boise State before. However, they have struggled in the past against Louisiana Tech, expecially when they have traveled to Ruston. A Friday night game on national TV serves to amp up the home crowd even further. I think Boise State wins, but fails to cover in a game that will be closer than most people think.

Oregon -6.5 over STANFORD - While my radar is going off for wanting to pick against Stanford in a late season Pac-Ten road team against a team rated in the Top Ten (the "Trees" are good for a random upset like this every few years), Oregon is quietly playing some of the best football in the country right now.

Green Bay - 9.5 over TAMPA BAY - Green Bay has managed to post a 4-3 record in spite of putting one of the worst offensive lines on the field this year due to injuries and a lack of depth. This week starting tackles Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher return to the starting lineup. Aaron Rogers has been ridiculously good this year even while running for his life. If he is given any time to throw deep, look out. I'm not saying that Rogers is the NFL league MVP this year, but nobody has been more valuable to his team than he has. Green Bay's defense has been hit or miss this season, and they rely heavily on forcing turn-overs in their new 3-4 scheme. Tampa Bay is starting their third different quarterback on the season in rookie Josh Freeman, who in my opinion is nowhere near being ready to play in the NFL in terms of maturity or his grasp in reading defenses. I look for Green Bay to win in a blow-out.

SAN FRANCISCO -4 over Tennessee - I'm reluctantly taking Alex Smith in what I'm going to refer to as the Bust Bowl. These teams are actually very similar on paper. Both offenses look to establish the run. Both defenses are good at stopping the run. Both teams have turned their offenses over to a quarterback who was a former top three draft pick that has widely been regarded as a "bust" to date. When it comes down to it, I think San Francisco's defense is better as a whole in stopping both the run and pass. Furthermore, Maurice Jones-Drew and the Jacksonville Jaguars may have exposed some holes in the Tennessee run defense last week that Frank Gore may be able to exploit.

1 comment:

  1. Last week was another rough week. While I nailed the Boise State - Louisiana Tech game, I couldn't have been more off in my analysis Tampa Bay and rookie quarterback Josh Freeman. Much to my surprise and bruised ego, the kid actually looked good wearing Tampa Bay's "creamsicle" throwbacks.

    Because I'm getting ready to head out of town for a few days, I don't think I'm going to get a chance to post my picks for Week 10 before Thursday nights Chicago - San Francisco game. For the record, I'm taking Chicago and the three points.