Friday, November 20, 2009

NFL PICKS - Week 11

Week 10 NFL Results: 9-6
NFL Results Season to Date: 74-82-1

Week 10 College Football Results: 4-1
College Football Results Season to Date: 25-18

Week 10 This Is Why Results: 3-1
This is Why Results Season to Date: 24-18

Week 11 NFL Picks (winners in parentheses):

At Carolina -3 Miami (Carolina)
At Detroit -3 Cleveland (Detroit)
At Jacksonville -8.5 Buffalo (Jacksonville)
Pittsburgh -10 At Kansas City (Pittsburgh)
At Baltimore -1 Indianapolis (Indianapolis)
At New York Giants -6.5 Atlanta (New York Giants)
At Green Bay -6.5 San Francisco (San Francisco)
At Minnesota -10.5 Seattle (Minnesota)
At Dallas -11 Washington (Washington)
New Orleans -11 At Tampa Bay (New Orleans)
Arizona -9 At St. Louis (Arizona)
At New England -10.5 New York Jets (New England)
Cincinnati -9 At Oakland (Cincinnati)
San Diego even At Denver (San Diego)
Philadelphia -3 At Chicago (Chicago)

Monday Night Football

At Houston -5 Tennessee (Tennessee)

College Picks

Central Michigan -16.5 At Ball State (Central Michigan)
Boise State -21.5 At Utah State (Boise State)
Ohio State -12 At Michigan (Ohio State)
At Ole Miss -3.5 LSU (LSU)

This is Why

Here are the pro and college lines that I would put money on, and why:

Pittsburgh -10 over KANSAS CITY - Kansas City finds a keeper in waiver wire pickup WR Chris Chambers, then promptly loses Dwayne Bowe to a suspension for taking a banned substance. Even with Troy Palamalu out for this game, I don't think Kansas City has the fire power to matchup with Pittsburgh's pass happy offense.

New Orleans -10 over Tampa Bay - I'm always wrong when I pick with my gut instead of my brain. I noted in a comment on my Week 10 NFL Picks blog entry that Tampa Bay has been a different team with Josh Freeman behind center. I also noted that the New Orleans offense was slowing down (actually they are becoming more balanced and run orientated), causing New Orleans to fail to cover the large spreads that they have been generating after their early season point production. So with this game being played in Tampa Bay, I'm logically taking New Orleans and laying the 10 points. The only reason I'm doing so is this is the first week that I think Vegas has sufficiently adjusted the New Orleans point spread downward in order to reflect their more ball controlled offense and injuries on the defensive side of the ball.

Cincinnati -9 over OAKLAND - The Bengals are a really good team. In spite of missing Cedric Benson due to injury and traveling to the west coast, the Bengals should be able to move the ball against the Raiders defense. I'm betting that new starting QB Bruce Gradkowski will not move the Raiders offense any better than JeMarcus Russell would against a solid Bengals defense.

JACKSONVILLE -8.5 over Buffalo - Buffalo is turning their offense over to a quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick who can't throw the deep ball. He will also be playing behind an offensive line that is starting it's 6th different tackle tandem due to injuries, so you can forget about supporting him with an already non-existent running game. Adding to the chaos in Buffalo, the Bills fired head coach Dick Jauron this week. While changing coaches sometimes can provide an underachieving team a spark, I think the Bills' problem is a lack of talent, not effort or chemistry. I really like Jacksonville's running game against Buffalo's weak defensive line.

1 comment:

  1. For this week's Thanksgiving games:

    Green Bay -9 At Detroit (Green Bay)
    At Dallas -11 Oakland (Oakland)
    New York Giants -7 At Denver (Denver)