2011 Oscar Predictions From a Guy Who Doesn't Watch Movies: The Golden Globes Strike Back

Before I get started on my third annual attempt at predicting the Oscar winners, let's start with some background information. As I state every year, I don’t watch or rent movies anymore.

I pretty much stopped watching movies and DVD's when Hollywood studios began trying to out “special effect” each other in order to overcompensate for bad writing and a lack of original ideas, a/k/a "the George Lucas syndrome."

My formula for predicting the Academy Award winners despite not ever watching movies is simple. I use a combination of word of mouth, watching movie trailers, reading movie posters, and my own personal analysis of how Hollywood works. Am I ready to give this yet another shot? Yo soy!

The most unique trend at the Oscars this year is that, unlike in the past, most of the films that were nominated did relatively well at the box office. Does this mean that the American public is starting to embrace "art-house" films? Or are the Oscars continuing their transition towards becoming The Golden Globes? With the Academy going with younger, hipper co-hosts in Anne Hathaway and James Franco this year in a clear attempt to boost ratings, I think they have pretty much indirectly given us the answer.

Another Oscar anomaly worth mentioning? Not a single African-American was nominated by the Academy for an Oscar this year. I mean seriously, couldn't they have put Will Smith up for a Lifetime Achievement Award or something? I have a feeling that there's going to be some serious elitist guilt going around Sunday night to overcompensate for an entire race of qualified actors being snubbed at this year's "Albino Awards."

My only question is what topic will generate more references from self righteous actors and actresses as they present and accept their awards? The lack of African-American nominees, or the labor unrest involving public sector unions in Wisconsin? In fact, put this up for debate at your own Oscar party and then put some money on it to make the show interesting.

I'm going on a limb and saying that the labor unrest in Wisconsin will generate more mentions, simply because the Hollywood elitist types like to pretend that they have real jobs by joining cute little clubs like "The Fraternal Order of Actors Local #420" just so they can proclaim that they are part of a real "brotherhood" as they sip on their "Fair Trade" soy lattes at some trendy coffee house.

Allright, it's time to get started. Let's rank the top ten films nominated for Best Picture, as well as the five nominees for Best Actor and Best Actress:

Best Picture:

10. The Social Network: This just as easily could have been a made for TV movie on a cable network like USA starring Anthony Michael Hall. It instead became one of the highest grossing box office films of the year and featured a boy band singer trying his hand at acting. Either way, the medium and casting for this film's premise was not quite Oscar worthy.

9. Toy Story 3: Toy Story 3 is the third installment in a series of animated films. So was Stars Wars: Revenge of the Sith. If Revenge of the Sith couldn't win the Oscar for Best Picture, then neither will Toy Story 3.

8. Inception: A smart movie for stupid people probably is not going to garner too much support from the Academy.

7. 127 Hours: If the producers could have combined 127 Hours with Into the Wild and still called it a non-fiction film then they might have been on to something. I can see the trailer now, "Based on a true story...Tom Cruise is In the Wild for 127 Hours!"

6. True Grit: The Coen brothers definitely have their own niche in Hollywood with their interpretations of classic works. Unfortunately they're just a little too witty for the Golden Globes, and not quite original enough for the Oscars.

5. The Fighter: While the Academy loves themselves some boxing movies, The Fighter is a bio-pic about a white-male boxer. That's just a little too Rocky these days to garner any real Oscar consideration. Now, if you took some liberties with history and made "Irish Mickey" a gutsy Indian fighter, and turned this film a Bollywood musical, then we might be able to talk.

4. The Kids Are All Right: Hmmm...A film about two lesbians adopting a child and dealing with the biological father. Despite the fact that the description of this film screams of a sitcom starring Jason Lee, Katherine Heigl and Ellen DeGeneres, It just might have some promise.

3. Winter's Bone: This sounds like a depressing, low budget, low grossing film. This film would have won the Oscar a few years back before the Academy decided to dumb things down for the American public.

2. Black Swan: Not that the plot was in any way slammed by the critics, but this screenplay just seemed like it was written primarily to highlight its characters rather than really tell a story. And yes, I'm still bitter that Natalie Portman got knocked up by Benajmin Millepied, whom she met as a result of making this movie.

1. The King's Speech: As an indictment as to why The Social Network won't win the Oscar for Best Picture, if this was a contemporary film it would have to do with Prince William fighting his male pattern baldness and convincing his girlfriend that she should still marry him before he takes the Thrown. Instead, just like a fine wine or wheel of cheddar cheese, we have an appropriately aged period piece about a historical figure who overcame a disability...Jesus, just give The King's Speech the damn award!

Best Actor:

5. Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network: If you get overshadowed by a former boy band member in a film, you don't deserve to win an Oscar.

4. Javier Bardem - Biutiful: When you are the second best actor in your family and your wife is Penelope Cruz, you don't deserve to win an Oscar.

3. Jeff Bridges - True Grit: Winning back to back Best Actor Oscars is kind of like winning the Heisman Trophy as an underclassman...If you don't follow it up with an even better season the next year then you simply aren't winning it again. Trying to do so while reprising the role of a legend (John Wayne won his only Best Actor Oscar for his role in True Grit in 1969) is kind of like dunking from the free throw line at the NBA Slam Dunk Contest...If you can pull it off you get high marks, but that alone isn't going to be enough to win since Dr. J was the one who made it famous. (sorry, I just had to work some sports into this blog post somewhere).

2. James Franco - 127 Hours: Even the writers of Castaway realized that Tom Hanks needed to converse with an inanimate volleyball for some comic relief in order to make that movie tolerable. Assuming that James Franco made a movie about a guy with his arm stuck under a rock for 127 hours watchable, then he must have done something right. Kudos to him, but this just doesn't quite feel like the type of movie that would generate an Oscar for Best Actor.

1. Colin Firth - The King's Speech: Period pieces featuring royalty roles have always done well when it comes to the Best Actor Award, as have roles that deal with people overcoming disabilities. Short of Tom Hanks having played a character who was both mentally retarded and homosexual this year, Firth is a mortal lock for the Best Actor Award.

Best Actress:

5. and 4. Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole/Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine: So how pissed do you think Katie Holmes is? Not only is her husband's ex-wife up for a Best Actress nomination, but so is Michelle Williams, who clearly played second fiddle to her when they were both on Dawson's Creek. I think it's pretty safe to say that Katie resents her overbearing husband and the whole Scientology "religion" for keeping her out of the 2011 Best Actress mix when they were responsible for forcing her to turn down the lead role in Sex and the City 2.

3. Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone: A relatively unknown actress in a dark film that didn't make much money...NOW we're talking about a serious Oscar contender!

2. Annette Benning - The Kids Are All Right: This is what happens to good looking actresses when they get old. While they can act better than ever, nobody really cares when they are up against a younger and prettier version who had a breakout performance in a tailor made role (and I'm not saying this just to be sexist, the winners of the Best Actress Oscar are traditionally much younger than their male counterparts, so bring it up with the Academy).



Whether it involves shaving her head, losing weight, getting pregnant while shooting, or putting up with George Lucas, nobody can say that Natalie Portman doesn't completely buy into whatever role she's playing.


1. Natalie Portman - Black Swan: Natalie Portman has been an actress in training for this award. Her entire career has been critically acclaimed (sans any mention of Queen Amidala or pairings with the likes of Ashton Kutcher). Not only did she purportedly push the envelope with a dark role in this film, but she "went DeNiro" and completely transformed her body (which was subsequently defiled by fiance Benajmin Millepied) for her role. Most importantly, Portman is a highly educated, well spoken and glowingly pregnant celebrity that the Academy would love to get all of the video and sound bites in which they otherwise dumbed things down a notch in order to get better ratings.

Pre-Scouting Combine 2011 NFL Mock Draft

Here is my Pre-Scouting Combine Mock Draft. It will be followed by several Post Combine Mock Drafts, as well as a Final Mock before the NFL Draft begins on April 28th.

My mock draft has been linked by The Football Fan Spot, Sports Jabber, DC Pro Sports Report, NFL Draft Dog, Walter Football, FF Toolbox, Hail Redskins.com, The Football Expert, No Limits Sportsline Fantasy Sports and NFL Draft Today in their Mock Draft Databases. If you're a draftnik like me, be sure to click on their hyperlinks and check out all of their extensive NFL Draft related material.

This is not a mock draft where I attempt play general manager and substitute my own judgment for the 32 NFL teams. I do my best to research what particular players or positions each team may be targeting by searching the internet, listening to Sirius NFL Radio, and watching shows like NFL Total Access/NFL Live for reliable tips from beat writers and NFL insiders. When possible I try to provide links and analysis as to why I think a particular player may end up going to the team that I have him slotted to.

Keep in mind that my Pre-NFL Combine Mock Draft is just a starting point. I will supplement these selections as more accurate insider information becomes available following free agency (pending a new CBA), the NFL Combine, and individual Pro Day workouts.

1. Carolina Panthers – Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn: With Andrew Luck staying in school and no other quarterbacks worthy of the number 1 overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Panthers will look to Nick Fairley to take control of the interior of their defensive line as he did at Auburn and Ndamukong Suh did as a rookie for the Detroit Lions last season. http://scottfowlerobs.blogspot.com/2011/01/pick-fairley-at-no1-or-else-trade-pick.html

2. Denver Broncos – Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU: Denver had the worst ranked defense in the league last season. Ex-head coach Josh McDaniel and GM Brian Xanders have left this unit nearly deplete of talent. With Pro Bowl cornerback Champ Bailey getting older and looking at free agency, Peterson could step in and anchor the Broncos' secondary. http://www.milehighreport.com/2011/1/18/1941343/denver-broncos-mock-draft-part-five-kyle-orton-on-the-outs-in-denver

3. Buffalo Bills – Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson: Depending on what free agent losses they suffer in the secondary and at linebacker, the Bills could need help at just about every position on defense. A solid 5 technique to help rush the passer as the Bills continue their transition to a 3-4 defense is a significant need that must be filled at some point. http://blogs.buffalobills.com/tag/2011-nfl-draft/

4. Cincinnati Bengals – A.J. Green, WR, Georgia: With Carson Palmer threatening to retire if his demand for a trade is not granted, the Bengals suddenly have huge needs to be filled on both sides of the ball. They could easily justify using this pick on a franchise quarterback, running back, wide receiver, defensive end or a defensive tackle. If the Bengals can appease Palmer, a wide receiver to ease the loss of soon to be departed Chad Johnson and Terrell Owens would be a nice start to help rebuild the Bengals offense. http://www.draftamerica.com/draft-buzz/nfl-draft-focus-cincinnati-bengals

5. Arizona Cardinals – Von Miller, DE/OLB, Texas A&M: Several reports suggest that the Cardinals are not interested in using their first round pick on a quarterback, and will instead try to fill their void at that position either via a trade or through free agency. Von Miller is a versatile pass rusher who is ideally suited to come off the edge in a 3-4 defense like Arizona's. http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/features/rumors?date=20110203#7911\

6. Cleveland Browns – Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina: The Browns, who will be going back to a 4-3 defense, are in desperate need of someone who can rush the passer on the defensive line. Wide receiver A.J. Green will also be a strong consideration. http://www.cleveland.com/ohio-sports-blog/index.ssf/2011/01/pm_cleveland_browns_links_80.html

7. San Francisco 49ers – Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri: Don't listen to Jim Harbaugh's references to keeping the door open on bringing Alex Smith, his time in San Francisco is through. Unless San Francisco can make a play for an established veteran like Kevin Kolb (which they won't be able to do until a CBA is reached), the 49ers will have to find their long term answer at quarterback through the draft. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/ninerinsider/detail?entry_id=81920

8. Tennessee Titans – Marcell Dareus, DT/DE, Alabama: While I don't see him as a pass rush threat in the NFL as an end in a 4-3 defense like the Titans ran under Jeff Fisher, Dareus will fit well as a run stopping end who can move inside to tackle on pass rushing downs. http://titanstouchdown.com/2011/01/nfl-draft-5-players-the-titans-could-go-with-who-are-not-quarterbacks/

9. Dallas Cowboys – Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska: The Cowboys secondary, amongst other positions, greatly underachieved last season. Terence Newman's days in Dallas appear numbered. While Prince Amukamara may not be a lock down cover corner, he has no glaring weaknesses in his game either. http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/dallas-cowboys/20110124-mock-drafts-predict-cowboys-take-nebraska-cb-prince-amukamara.ece

10. Washington Redskins – Cam Newton, QB, Auburn: Rex Grosman clearly is not the answer at quarterback for the 'Skins. Is Cam Newton? While his performance at the NFL Combine might take him out of the mix as a top 3 pick in this year's draft, Washington would still have to consider him at number 10 given their void at the quarterback position assuming they release Donvan McNabb as expected. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/redskinsinsider/blaine-gabbert-redskins-draft-2011.html

11. Houston Texans – Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri: The Texans would love to land local product Von Miller to provide an edge rush for their new 3-4 defense or a corner like Prince Amukamara from Nebraska. Missour's Aldon Smith will have to suffice as a less hyped consolation prize as a pass rushing linebacker in their new 3-4 scheme under Wade Phillips. http://blogs.chron.com/nfl/2011/02/join_the_nfl_chat_at_1130_am_1.html;

http://blogs.chron.com/nfl/2011/02/join_the_nfl_chat_at_1130.html

12. Minnesota Vikings – Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas: Minnesota has glaring holes at DT, DE, S and QB. With Rhett Bomar and Joe Webb currently the only options on their roster to take over for Brett Favre, the Vikings may need to use their first round pick on a signal caller. http://blogs.twincities.com/Vikings/2011/01/vikings-need-depth-at-several.html

13. Detroit Lions – Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA: With the top two corners off the board do the Lions turn their attention to a desperate need for a playmaker at outside linebacker? The Lions could be in a difficult position in this year's draft if the top cornerbacks are off the board, as the number 13 spot may be too early value wise to draft a 3-4 outside linebacker in this draft. Martin Mahew is definitely not a GM who will reach for a player in the draft just because he fills a position of need. While many experts have the Lions drafting a tackle, I think Detroit might want to give young back-ups Corey Hilliard and Jason Fox another year to develop behind Jeff Backus, who is coming off perhaps his best year. Does that mean we could see the Lions go after yet another WR in the first round? Not only could someone like Julio Jones be the highest rated player on the board when the Lions pick, but he would also fill the role of a much needed deep threat opposite Calvin Johnson with Nate Burleson manning the slot. At least for now the Lions hope that a 3-4 OLB like Akeem Ayers of UCLA performs well enough at the Scouting Combine and his Pro Day workout to prove that he is talented enough to be selected in the top half of the first round. http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2011/01/clearing_up_the_von_miller-to-.html

14. St. Louis Rams – Julio Jones, WR, Alabama: The Rams need to find a legitimate number one target for quarterback Sam Bradford. This pick should be a no-brainer if Jones is still available when St. Louis picks. http://www.stltoday.com/sports/football/professional/article_b0782b36-2d61-11e0-93b8-00127992bc8b.html

15. Miami Dolphins – Mark Ingram, Jr., RB, Alabama: The Dolphins are looking to trade down from number 15 and acquire a second round pick, having given theirs up to Denver in the Brandon Marshall trade last year. Even if they move lower in the first round they could still be in the mix for former Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram, Jr., who would replace the Dolphins aging and injury prone duo at running back in Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown. http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports_football_dolphins/2011/01/does-the-2011-draft-match-miami-dolphins-needed.html

16. Jacksonville Jaguars - Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa: One of the many reasons why I would not be disappointed if the Jaguars moved out of Jacksonville is the lack of any regular reports about their franchise from the local media. The city of Jacksonville doesn't provide any in depth coverage, and Orlando doesn't even acknowledge that the team exists. That leaves me stuck with Mel Kiper, Jr.'s prediction that the Jaguars will take Iowa DE Adrian Clayborn, who I was not particularly impressed with when I watched him this year. Personally, I think Purdue's Ryan Kerrigan would be a nice understudy and back-up for DE Aaron Kampman, who will be attempting to come back from knee surgery.

17. New England Patriots (from Oakland) – Cameron Jordan, DE/OLB, California: New England always seems to be looking for defensive ends/outside linebackers for their 3-4 defensive scheme. Cameron Jordan of Cal showed his ability to play standing up at the next level at the Senior Bowl. http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2011/01/30/finding_patriot_material_in_this_senior_circuit/?page=3

18. San Diego Chargers – Nate Solder, OT, Colorado: The Chargers had the top offenses and defenses in the league last year, so they can turn their attention adding playmakers and depth to actually make them playoff contenders. Upgrading the right tackle position would help improve the Chargers run game and pass protection, and would become an even bigger position of need in the event that they are unable to re-sign Jeromey Clary. http://www.bolthype.com/2011/01/chargers-free-agency-2011-offense.html

19. New York Giants – Tyron Smith, OT, USC: Replenishing an aging offensive line has to be a priority for the Giants, as is adding some new blood at linebacker. Tyron Smith of USC lacks ideal size initially as he enters the NFL, but should develop into a solid left tackle as he matures and gains weight. http://newyork.sbnation.com/new-york-giants/2011/1/28/1961072/2011-nfl-mock-drafts-tyron-smith-is-consensus-pick-for-giants

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue: While the Bucs have the versatility to go for the best available player for the most part, getting a rush end is their biggest priority. Ryan Kerrigan has a relentless motor, and on film he reminds me of Michigan's Brandon Graham from last year's draft. http://www2.tbo.com/content/2011/jan/28/281701/bucs-beat-a-week-of-reporting-at-the-senior-bowl/

21. Kansas City Chiefs – Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia: While Mikey Vrable has given the Chiefs more than they could have ever expected as a throw in on the Matt Cassel trade, he probably doesn't have too many productive years left in the tank. Justin Houston would be a nice pick to add to the Chiefs pass rush and serve as Vrabel's eventual replacement. http://www.kansascity.com/2011/01/30/2621466/chiefs-need-receiver-but-use-top.html

22. Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Castanzo, OT, Boston College: The Colts survived with a very mediocre offense line for years thanks to Howard Mudd, who may be one of the best line coaches ever in the NFL. When Mudd left last season, the Colts line was exposed as a glaring weakness. It's definitely time that Indianapolis looks for some talent at the the tackle position to help protect Peyton Manning and re-establish some sort of running game. http://www.stampedeblue.com/2011/1/30/1963758/2010-colts-positional-review-offensive-tackle

23. Philadelphia Eagles - Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin: The Eagles offensive line has underachieved in recent years based upon the money they've paid to big name guys. Carimi could start off his NFL career playing right tackle or even guard, which would give the Eagles some depth and versatility on their line. http://www.phillyburbs.com/news/news_details/article/131/2011/january/16/decisions-decisions-6.html

24. New Orleans Saints – J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin: The Saints don't have any glaring needs, but could stand to add to their pass rush, either at DE or OLB. http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2011/02/join_the_new_orleans_saints_ch_3.html

25. Seattle Seahawks – Jake Locker, QB, Washington: With Matt Hasselbeck indicating that he'd like to re-sign and with the Seahawks having traded for Charlie Whitehurst last year, I'm not sure whether Seattle is in the market for a QB high in this year's draft or not. If they are looking for a quarterback of the future, hometown college star Jake Locker would come into a good situation where he would not be forced to play right away and could work on the accuracy issues that many scouts are bringing up after his senior season. http://seahawksdraftblog.com/?p=952

26. Baltimore Ravens – Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland: While Baltimore improved their depth at wide receiver last season, they were all possession receivers who did little to differentiate from what they already had in Derrick Mason. A burner like Torrey Smith of Maryland to help Joe Flacco and company stretch the field and open up their offense would be ideal. http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baltimore-sports-blog/bal-sportsblitz-mock-draft0209,0,5415627.story?track=rss

27. Atlanta Falcons – Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State: Atlanta is still searching for a defensive end to initially compliment, and then replace John Abraham. Cameron Heyward is a hometown kid who could fill that need if one of the top wide receivers is not available to spread the field at the 27th pick.  http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/2011/02/10/in-mcshays-mock-the-falcons-pounce-on-the-other-pouncey/?cxntfid=blogs_mark_bradley_blog

28. New England Patriots – Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida: Even if the Patriots are able to franchise tag guard Logan Mankins, don't look for him to stay in New England long term given the rift between the parties this past year over his contract. The Patriots apparently liked Maurkice Pouncey coming out of Florida in last year's draft, and will now have a chance to select his twin brother Mike, who could initially help out at guard before ultimately moving to center. http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4692682/patriots-never-got-a-chance-to-pounce

29. Chicago Bears - Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor: The Bears need help on their interior defensive line. With DT Stephen Paea having been diagnosed with a torn ligament in his knee at the Senior Bowl, Phil Taylor stepped up and showed that he is yet another defensive tackle worthy of a first round pick. Danny Watkins of Baylor could also be an option if the Bears instead elect to upgrade their offensive line. http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2011/01/06/bears-draft-could-focus-on-linemen/

30. New York Jets – Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois: Nose tackle Kris Jenkins career is in question after multiple serious injuries have cost him the better part of the past two seasons. Corey Liuget appears to be a rising commodity as the NFL draft nears. http://www.nypostonline.com/p/sports/jets/revis_wants_jets_to_bring_back_cromartie_S4Z8RH5AJOyoikN9tRN7wL (see video)

31. Pittsburgh Steelers – Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado: While the Steelers arguably have the best defense in the league, Neither William Gay nor Bryant McFadden are starting caliber NFL cornerbacks. Jimmy Smith is garnering interest as a potential lock down corner, and would be an ideal pick for Pittsburgh this late in the first round. http://pittsburgh.sbnation.com/pittsburgh-steelers/2011/2/7/1980241/2011-nfl-mock-draft-steelers-colorado-cb-jimmy-smith

32. Green Bay Packers – Danny Watkins, G, Penn Baylor: Green Bay won the Super Bowl and will have key players returning from injury last season at tight end, tackle, middle linebacker, outside linebacker, 3-4 defensive end and running back. An bruising guard like Danny Watkins would help solidify a week running game that was without running backs Ryan Grant and James Starks for most of the regular season, thereby making Green Bay's already high powered offense even more frightening for opposing defenses next season than it was this past year. http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2011/2/7/1979578/2011-nfl-mock-draft-superbowl-first-round

Super Bowl XLV Pick - Because Aaron Rodgers' beard is cooler than Ben Roethlisberger's haircut

Season Record Against the Spread:

NFL Championship Game Results: 4-0
NFL Results Season to Date: 141-110-13

College Football Season Results: 50-44-6

Mark My Words NFL Championship Game Results: 4-0
Mark My Words Results Season to Date: 39-46-3

2011 SUPER BOWL PICK AND ANALYSIS:

Green Bay -3 over Pittsburgh/Under 46 - We couldn't have a better match-up than Green Bay and Pittsburgh in what should be the highest rated Super Bowl in television history. I see this game as a defensive struggle between two teams that are mirror images of one another.

There are so many questions to debate before we choose the winner of Super Bowl XLV. Will Aaron Rodgers and his facial hair (I'm not hating - Giselle dated Rodgers and made him grow that goatee long before she ever made Tom Brady get his Justin Bieber haircut) overcome the curse of Brett Favre and strap on the Championship Belt?

Aaron Rodgers straps on Championship Belts like Ben Roethlisberger straps on condoms...wait, bad example.

Or will Ben Roethlisberger rally Terrible Towel Nation and use his manly haircut and boyish good looks to once again put a ring around that finger in the dirty bathroom that is better known as Dallas, Texas?

Let's breakdown these two teams and find out how they compare:

Passing Game - Aaron Rodgers gives Green Bay an advantage in the air, although I'm a little bit concerned with his turnovers of late. Green Bay's receivers definitely match-up against the Steelers secondary better than Hines Ward and Mike Wallace do against Charles Woodson and Tremond Williams, especially when James Jones and Jordy Nelson work against Pittsbugh's nickle and dime packages. If Pittsburgh has any advantage through the air, it is with Heath Miller at the tight end position against back-up OLB Erik Walden.  

Advantage - Green Bay.

Running Game - While James Starks has rejuvenated Green Bay's running game by adding an inside presence, Rashard Mendenhall has been effective fighting for extra yards even when the Steeler line has failed to open holes for him in the playoffs. Pittsburgh's backfield is also more versatile with Mewelde Moore catching passes and Isaac Redman coming in as a power back.

Advantage - Pittsburgh.

Offensive Lines - I expect both lines to struggle picking up the other teams' blitz. Green Bay's offensive line is their biggest weakness, and Pittsburgh's line is even worse. If starting center Maurkice Pouncey is unable to play due to a high ankle sprain the Steelers will be down to their back-ups at center and both tackle positions, which should have blitz happy Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers smelling blood.

Advantage - Green Bay, by default.

Pass Rush - Both teams rely heavily on the blitz to set up the rest of their 3-4 defense. Pittsburgh will utilize their famous zone-blitz, while Green Bay will rely on Clay Mathews coming off the edge and try to catch Pittsburgh off guard with cornerback Charles Woodson blitzing from the slot when the Steelers go to 3 wide receiver sets.

Advantage - Pittsburgh. Nobody blitzes better than the Steelers, and they simply have more horses to throw at the Packers with Lamarr Woodley, James Harrison and Troy Polamalu.

Run Defense - Cullen Jenkins and B.J. Raji have been absolute beasts for Green Bay, while NT Casey Hampton makes it nearly impossible for opponents to run up the middle against the Steelers. I think both teams are going to have trouble running the ball, which is going to make both teams one dimensional and play right into the hands of defensive coordinators Dick LeBeau (Pittsburgh) and Dom Capers (Green Bay).

Advantage - Even.

Cullen Jenkins flexes some serious muscle at DE for the Green Bay Packers

Pass Defense - Green Bay has more talent across the board in the secondary with Charles Woodson, Tremond Williams and Sam Shields as their corners. Still, the Packers have to tackle better than they did against Chicago in the NFC Championship game. Troy Polamalu is a game changer even though he hasn't quite been the same since he returned from an injury to his Achilles tendon late in the season, although the two weeks rest heading into the Super Bowl will give him some extra time to recover. Nonetheless, I like Green Bay's top four receivers when it comes to their match-ups against Pittsburgh's top four corners (Ike Taylor, Bryant McFadden, William Gay and Anthony Madison).

Advantage - Green Bay.

Special Teams - Green Bay's kickoff and punt returners could be a liability. Tremond Williams not only lacks the burst that elite return men have, but I don't trust him when it comes to fielding the ball cleanly on punts. I have a feeling that someone like rookie Antonio Brown could come up with a big kickoff return for the Steelers. Packers punter Tim Masthay deserved to make the Pro Bowl, and was once again fantastic pinning Chicago and elite return man Devin Hester deep in their own territory in the NFC Championship game.

Advantage - Pittsburgh.

Key Players - Packers OLB Clay Mathews, Packers DE Cullen Jenkins, Packers, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay WR James Jones, Green Bay WR Jordy Nelson, Pittsburgh WR/KR Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh TE Heath Miller, Pittsburgh LB Lamarr Woodley, Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger.

MVP Predictions - Green Bay - Aaron Rodgers; Pittsburgh - Lamarr Woodley.

Final Prediction - Green Bay - 21, Pittsburgh - 17

When all is said and done, the cheese should stand alone and Packer fans will be singing at the Mars Cheese Castle in Kenosha, WI after Super Bowl XLV

NFL PICKS - Conference Championship Games

NFL Divisional Playoff Results: 1-3

NFL Results Season to Date: 137-110-13

College Football Season Results: 50-44-6

Mark My Words Divisional Playoff Results: 1-3
Mark My Words Results Season to Date: 35-46-3

Conference Championship NFL Picks (winners in parentheses):

At Chicago -3.5 Green Bay (Green Bay)
At Pittsburgh -3.5 New York Jets (Pittsburgh)

Mark My Words: (I'm not saying that the NFL is pulling for a Green Bay-Pittsburgh Super Bowl, which would probably break every single ratings record, but...well yeah, I'm saying it). Here's how I'd bet the NFL Conference Championship games, and why:

Green Bay -3.5 over CHICAGO/Under 44 points - Even with their home win last week against Seattle, I'm still not a believer in Chicago. Had they not been handed a victory that they did not earn in Week 1 over the Lions on the ridiculous ruling that Calvin Johnson did not "complete the process," the Packers would have topped the bears for the NFC North division title based on the 4th NFL Tie-Breaker for "strength of victory." Without winning the division title the Bears would have likely had to travel in the playoffs, which would have likely precluded any realistic chance at playing for the NFC Conference Championship. As for the match-up itself, don't get caught up with Green Bay's offense. Chicago is going to play bend but don't break and make Green Bay beat their "Tampa Two" zone, while Green Bay has the playmakers on defense to shut down Jay Cutler and Chicago's skilled position players on offense. Even though Green Bay is on the road I still think that they are a better cold weather team than the Bears. Look for Green Bay to beat Chicago 21-17 in a low scoring game, but if one team does break out offensively it will be the Packers.

PITTSBURGH -3.5 over New York Jets/Over 38.5 points - Pittsburgh and the Jets match-up pretty evenly on defense, but Pittsburgh has the better quarterback and a significant home crowd advantage. Even when they were down to their 5th and 6th string tackles against Baltimore's blitz the Steelers proved they could adjust with quick screens and swing passes over and around the rush. I look for the Steelers to win in a 24-17 game that is higher scoring than one would expect given the reputations of the two defenses involved.

NFL PICKS - Divisional Playoffs

Wildcard Weekend NFL Results: 0-4
NFL Results Season to Date: 136-107-13

College Football Bowl Prediction Results: 18-14-4
College Football Season Results: 50-44-6

Wildcard Weekend Mark My Words Results: 0-4
Mark My Words Results Season to Date: 34-43-3

Divisional Playoff NFL Picks (winners in parentheses):

At Pittsburgh -3 Baltimore (Pittsburgh)
At Atlanta -2 Green Bay (Atlanta)
At Chicago -10 Seattle (Seattle)
At New England -8.5 New York Jets (New England)

Mark My Words: Here's how I'd bet the second round of the NFL playoff games, and why:

PITTSBURGH -3 over Baltimore - The road team won each regular season matchup by 3 points this season. Baltimore has been particularily strong on the road all season long, including last week at Kansas City against a strong homefield advantage for the Chiefs. Pittsburgh is as tough as a place in the league as there is to play. I'm going with my gut  on this one and saying Pittsburgh covers.

ATLANTA -2 over Green Bay - Matt Ryan and the Falcons just don't lose at home, but if Green Bay is able to negate Michael "Burner" Turner and the Atlanta running game, things could get interesting. I'm not betting on this game.

Seattle +10 over CHICAGO - I can't believe that one of these two horrible teams will be in the NFC Championship Game. When in doubt, take the points.

YOU'LL TAKE NOTHING AND LIKE IT!!!

NEW ENGLAND -8.5 over New York Jets - While the Jets and the Patriots have split in the Rex Ryan era with the home team winning every game, New England has won their two games at Foxborough decisively.

Lance Armstrong: Living strong, or living a lie?

Surprisingly, dating a 21 year old Olsen twin when he was 36 wasn't even Lance Armstrong's most questionable relationship

According to USA Today Game On! bloggers Reid Cherner and Tom Weir, American cyclists Lance Armstrong and Floyd Landis co-ranked as the #30 Sports Personalities of 2010:

"We long for the days when our cycling news was dominated by great performances. But it was hard to ignore the back and forth between our greatest cyclist ever and one of our most disgraced."

While Landis won a tainted Tour de France in 2006, it's a bit of a stretch to call him "our greatest cyclist ever." On the other hand, Armstrong should certainly be one of our nation's most disgraced athletes. Instead, he is glorified and widely revered for those hypocritical yellow rubber "LIVESTRONG" bracelets given the plethora of independent sources who have implicated him as one of the most biggest cheaters in the history of sports.

You would think that any self proclaimed "clean" champion in a sport as dirty as professional cycling would steer clear of an questionable associations. Yet dating back to 1996 Armstrong has "consulted" with Italian doctor Michele Ferrari, who just so happens to be notorious for having trained numerous cyclists who have tested positive for doping and performance enhancing drugs. Dr. Ferrari was even convicted in 2004 by an Italian court for malpractice and sporting fraud for showing cyclists how to use performance-enhancing drugs.

While Dr. Ferrari's convictions were ultimately overturned by an Appeals Court, the sports-fraud verdict was only thrown out because of a legal technicality based upon a determination that the applicable statute of limitations had expired. Armstrong himself has said of his relationship with Dr. Ferrari:

"Is it questionable? Perhaps. Has Lance Armstrong ever tested positive? No. Has Lance Armstrong been tested? A lot."

No, Armstrong has never publicly tested positive for doping or performance enhancing drugs, but isn't that Dr. Ferrari's specialty, being one step of the testing curve so the athletes that he trains don't get caught? I'm sorry, but whenever an athlete accused of using performance enhancing drugs refers to him/herself in the third person and employs the, "I've never tested positive" defense, it only makes me even more skeptical. Let's count his relationship with Dr. Ferrari as "strike one" against Armstrong.

In addition to Armstrong's questionable relationship with Dr. Ferrari, Floyd Landis, Armstrong's former teammate who was stripped of his 2006 Tour de France win after a positive doping test, accused Armstrong and other members of the U.S. Postal Service Team of doping and using performance enhancing drugs.

While Armstrong simply brushed aside Landis' allegations by saying, "Floyd lost his credibility a long time ago," Chad Gerlach, who rode with the U.S. Postal team while Armstrong and Landis were on it said he's inclined to believe Landis's account of widespread doping based on what he saw during his own career:

"I believe it because I have seen it personally. I am not ready to out my friends or provide names. I just saw it. It's just a systematic thing."

While Gerlach was not willing to name names, Armstrong has also been accused of doping by American cycling legend Greg LeMond, a three time former winner of the Tour de France who is an outspoken anti-doping advocate. LeMond has publicly expressed his disdain for Armstrong's failure to admit that he engaged in doping. LeMond voiced has skepticism as to whether or not Armstrong was a clean rider when he was quoted as saying:

"When Lance won the prologue to the 1999 Tour I was close to tears, but when I heard he was working with Michele Ferrari I was devastated. In the light of Lance's relationship with Ferrari, I just don't want to comment on this year's Tour. This is not sour grapes. I'm disappointed in Lance, that's all it is."

Let's consider a credible attack from a legend and mentor like LeMond as "strike two" against Armstrong.

If that isn't enough, Armstrong's former teammate, Frankie Andreu, testified that he overheard Armstrong tell his oncologist that he had used “steroids, testosterone, cortisone, growth hormone and EPO" while visiting him in the hospital as he treated for testicular cancer.

And before we rush to judgement and say that these other riders were out for vengeance or to bring Armstrong down, I've never really heard any other cyclists criticize his personality (actually, Landis was the one they all seemed to hate). Rather, they seemed to simply be standing up for their sport and/or coming clean. Let's call Andreu's testimony in a court of law where he was not personally the one on trial as "strike three" against Armstrong.

As mentioned above, it is well known that Lance Armstrong was diagnosed as having and treated for testicular cancer, which was the inspiration behind his very public and popular LIVESTRONG campaign. I'm not saying that doping or the use of performance enhancing drugs caused Armstrong's cancer, but I will say that IF he did use PED's as the circumstantial evidence suggests (which are known to cause other types, but have never been linked to testicular cancer), his "LIVESTRONG" anti-cancer campaign is hypocritical.

This post is not meant to diminsih Armstrong's charitable work for cancer, just his motives behind it. I've donated money to cancer research, but I'll never feed Armstrong's ego by buying one of his stupid yellow rubber bracelets, at least not until he comes clean about how he came about his success in order to become a public figure and promises that 100% of his LIVESTRONG foundation proceeds go to cancer research with all the administrative costs of running his charity coming from his own pocket. Until then, I'll just look at him as any other semi-talented joe who only  made a name for himself because he was willing to illegally enhance his body, which puts him even lower than someone like Snooki, who at least whored her way to fame au naturel.

NFL PICKS - Wildcard Weekend 2011

Week 17 NFL Results: 11-5
NFL Results Season to Date: 136-103-13

Week 17 College Football Results: 0-0
College Football Season Results: 32-30-2

Week 17 Mark My Words Results: 2-2
Mark My Words Results Season to Date: 34-39-3

Wildcard Weekend NFL Picks (winners in parentheses):

New Orleans -10.5 At Seattle (New Orleans)
At Indianapolis -3 New York Jets (Indianapolis)
Baltimore -3 At Kansas City (Kansas City)
At Philadelphia -2.5 Green Bay (Philadelphia)

Mark My Words - Here's how I'd bet the first round of the NFL playoff games, and why:

PHILADELPHIA -2.5 over Green Bay - Green Bay won by 7 at Philly in Week 1, but Michael Vick did not replace Kevin Kolb until the second half and was still nearly able to complete a 4th quarter comeback. One thing is for sure, this game will be high scoring.

INDIANAPOLIS -3 over New York Jets - Not only does Indianapolis have Rex Ryan's number, but I can't conceivably pick Mark Sanchez over Peyton Manning in a playoff game at Indy. If the Jets win it will be entirely upon their running game and their defense, and both were disappointments this year.

Kansas City +3 Baltimore - I'm not afraid to say that Kansas City is the most overrated team in football, but there's something about their balanced running attack and playing in front of what should be an insane crowd at Arrowhead Stadium that has talked me into taking the points even though Baltimore has been outstanding on the road this season.

New Orleans -10.5 SEATTLE - If Seattle had the 8:00 EST kickoff that the Jets-Colts got instead of the early 4:30 EST kickoff I'd probably go with Seattle and the points based upon the 12th-man home crowd momentum. However, the Seahawks had no answer for Drew Brees and the Saints offense at New Orleans in Week 11, so they should be able to subdue the Seattle crowd if they can take advantage of a weak Seahawk secondary and strike early. Couple that with Seattle's questionable quarterback situation and I'll predict this game as the one blow-out on Wildcard Weekend.