Oscar Predictions From a Guy Who doesn't Watch Movies

Before I get started on my Sixth annual attempt at predicting the Oscar winners, let's start with some background information.

As I state each year, I don't watch, rent or download movies anymore.

I pretty much stopped watching them when Hollywood studios began trying to out “special effect” each other in order to overcompensate for bad writing and a lack of original ideas, or as I call it, "the George Lucas syndrome."

My formula for predicting the Academy Award winners despite not ever watching any movies is simple. I use a combination of word of mouth, movie trailers, movie posters, and my own personal analysis of how Hollywood works.

Sadly, the upcoming movie Son of God, a modern day adaption of The Greatest Story Ever Told, did not make this year's nominations due to it's late release date, but I can't wait for it to be on the board come next year.

Coming to theaters this Easter season, Diogo Morgado as, The Son of God...Because Good Friday is a great time to see this movie!

After all, it will have a heartthrob for it's Jesus, some bitchin' CGI, and dinosaurs...You can't forget the fucking dinosaurs.

You know, because every Bible story has to be re-written to include dinosaurs ever since it was conclusively proven that they made it on to Noah's Ark, only to die out at a later date.

In even bigger news, word has it that Woody Allen just signed on to be director for the upcoming Jerry Sandusky story, which will be produced as a sequel to Kathryn Bigelow's award winning film under the title, The Hurt Locker Room.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves, there are plenty of mediocre films from this year that we still need to talk about.

So without further ado, let's pay homage to the Academy's yearly event to honor Hollywood's finest child molesters like Roman Polanski, Woody Allen and John Goodman, and try to predict the 2014 Oscar winners.

Best Supporting Actor:

5. Bradley Cooper - American Hustle: With all of his Oscar nominations in recent years, you'd think that Bradley Cooper was a good actor. However, you'd be wrong.

4. Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips: Despite his Oscar Nomination, Barkhad Abdi is reportedly already broke and living off the per diems he makes for appearances to hype Captain Phillips. And while that makes for a nice story, if the Academy truly wanted to help out by nominating homeless actors, they could have at least thrown a bone Randy Quaid's way.

3. Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street: Clearly, Jonah Hill is giving secret hand jobs to somebody in Hollywood, and they aren't just for Seth Rogan.

2. Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave: I think that German-Irish actor Michael Fassbender's role as a racist plantation owner is just a little too close to his comfort zone in a Tom Cruise kind of way for him to receive any serious consideration for Best Supporting Actor. Tell him to check back after he convincingly plays either an abolitionist or a recovering alcoholic, then we can talk about an Academy Award.

Michael Fassbender recently received criticism for whipping out his dong and peeing on a shrub on the set of a movie he's shooting. Doesn't he know that urine is murder?

1. Jared Leto - The Dallas Buyers Club: Jared Leto joins the short list of fabulous actors to play cross dressing males, like Dustin Hoffman in Tootsie, Robin Williams in Mrs. Doubtfire, and Tyler Perry in whatever movie he's coming out with this week.

On that note, wouldn't an officially sanctioned event called "The All Black Oscars" be a hell of a lot more entertaining than the real thing? Chris Rock could host, Halle Berry could cry, and Eddie Murphy and Perry could play dress up and cover every other member in the audience.

Best Supporting Actress:

5. Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle: See Bradley Cooper (above).

4. Julia Roberts - August: Osage County: Julia Roberts is no spring chicken, so her days of winning the Academy over with her looks and lovable prostitute days are all but gone. Now she actually has to learn how to act, and there's no better way to do that than to intern under the late Meryl Streep.

3. Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine: As Ginger, Sally Hawkins plays a woman whose unhappy, recently divorced sister moves into her San Francisco apartment, which is really just Woody Allen's take on the Keeping up with the Kardashians episode where Khloe leaves Lamar and moves back in with Kim.

2. June Squibb - Nebraska: From Broadway to The Young and the Restless, and from Scent of a Woman to The Ghost Whisperer, no actor/actress in Hollywood has had a wider range of good and crappy parts this side of James Franco.

1. Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave: We could have a highly decorated Hollywood couple in Jered Leto and Lupita Nyong'o, who Leto referred to as his future ex-wife, should both win the Oscar for best supporting actor/actress. The really surprising part of that story is that Jared Leto isn't gay.

Best Actor:

5. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street: Somewhere in Missouri, Kirk Cameron is secretly kicking himself in the ass for the poor career and life decisions he made when he converted to Christianity in the late 80's and early 90's, leaving Leonardo DiCaprio to take his place and ultimately grow up to become Robin Thicke.  

4. Christian Bale - American Hustle: Who says nice guys don't get nominated for Academy Awards...Oh, wait.

3. Bruce Dern - Nebraska: Everybody associated with the movie Nebraska was holding their breath and hoping that Bruce Dern wouldn't die before production ended. Fortunately, their gamble paid off.

2. Chitwell Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave: Is it just me, or does it piss anyone else off when these liberal Hollywood studios hire foreign actors to play roles in American movies?

1. Mathew McConaughey - The Dallas Buyers Club: From his body transformation, to his willingness to take on the role of a gay man as an (allegedly) straight actor, Mathew McConaughey is only a role where he plays retard away from the coveted "Tom Hanks Lifetime Achievement Award."

Best Actress:

5. Sandra Bullock - Gravity: The only storyline with Sandra Bullock playing an astronaut that I'd believe is the one where the lady put on a pair of Depends and drove non-stop from Houston to Orlando in order to kidnap and murder her rival for a relationship with another astronaut.

4. Amy Adams - American Hustle: Amy Adams must be a good actress, because very few people realize that she's actually Mormon, which makes the doll below even more creepy, yet a little sexy at the same time, at least in a forbidden Donnie and Marie kind of way.

This Amy Adams action figure is slightly creepy.

3. Judi Dench - Philomena: Despite being nominated for best actress, Judi Dench will not be able to attend the Oscars because she's in India filming The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 2, who's producer must be the biggest dick in the world, because at 79-years-old, I'm thinking that Dench isn't going to get too many more chances to attend Hollywood's most pretentious night.

2. Meryl Streep - August: Osage County: If you make a successful movie where you play a dysfunctional person from the South, the people there resent you. If you play a dysfunctional Southerner and your performance is panned by critics from the East and West coasts, people from the South think you're a hero.

1. Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine: As Jasmine, Cate Blanchett plays a woman whose unhappy, recently divorced sister moves into her San Francisco apartment, which is really just Woody Allen's take on the Keeping up with the Kardashians episode where Khloe leaves Lamar and moves back in with Kim.

And while she's a sure in to win, nobody wants to hear her give a pretentious Oscar speech. 

Best Director:

This category would have been so much funnier to predict had Woody Allen been nominated.

Best Picture:

9. Her: If anybody could make a movie about a guy having an intimate relationship with his smart phone creepier than it already sounds, it was Joaquin Phoenix...And at least when girls do it, there's a vibrate mode. 

8. Gravity: At the very least, this movie made great strides in terms of technology, with Sandra Bullock's entire character having been computer generated. In fact, it gives me hope that we'll be seeing Philip Seymour Hoffman in films for years to come.

7. American Hustle: Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence were better cast when they played retards in Silver Linings Playbook. 

6. The Wolf of Wall Street: The Wolf of Wall Street is this year's typical crappy movie with a big named cast...I'm just trying to figure out what happened to prevent George Clooney from getting a role in this clunker.

5. Captain Phillips: Sadly, Captain Phillips is only the second best "Captain" movie ever made, still trailing Kurt Russell and Martin Short's classic, Captain Ron.

4. Philomena: I know absolutely nothing about this movie, and that automatically makes it better than the five films that I've listed immediately above it.

3. Nebraska: Not since The Grapes of Wrath has a film about corn and people from the heartland been so interesting.

2. 12 Years a Slave: I just don't see how a movie that clearly stole it's story from a classic like Django Unchained can be rewarded by the Academy.

1. The Dallas Buyers Club: If you went to this movie thinking it was a film about Jerry Jones and his free spending ways with the Dallas Cowboys like I did, you were sorely disappointed...That is, except for the love scenes between Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto.

Oscar Predictions From a Guy Who Doesn't Watch Movies

Before I get started on my fifth annual attempt at predicting the Oscar winners, let's start with some background information. As I state each year, I don't watch or rent movies anymore.

I pretty much stopped watching movies and DVD's when Hollywood studios began trying to out “special effect” each other in order to overcompensate for bad writing and a lack of original ideas, a/k/a "the George Lucas syndrome."

My formula for predicting the Academy Award winners despite not ever watching movies is simple. I use a combination of word of mouth, watching movie trailers, reading movie posters, and my own personal analysis of how Hollywood works.

Ironically, The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has been proven remarkable inept at casting somebody with the stage presence and comedic wit to host their own major awards show.

...Save for the 12-13 times that the Academy has gone to the well for Billy Crystal.

That has lead to sagging ratings, as well as last year's disastrous paring of red carpet darling Anne Hathaway and the talentless James Franco in attempt to draw a younger audience.

Cue this year's host, Seth McFarland, who's a natural choice given his pension for writing and singing Broadway-esque scores on his show The Family Guy, an ability to see humor in pop culture, and a quick wit that he's demonstrated during various celebrity roasts.

Then again, McFarland has admitted that he plans to start drinking whiskey before the show, and with his propensity to push the envelope of good taste, the politically liberal but socially conservative Academy should be crapping in their Depends.

Throw in a rare live performance by Barbara Streisand, who's known to have stage fright, and we could have the recipe for a disaster of epic proportions.

Nonetheless, the Academy will still be getting the ratings spike that they've been craving, whether it be for better or worse.

So without further ado, let's pray to God that the Academy's decision to reach out to the masses doesn't include Steven Spielberg, and rank the nominees for Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Picture:

Best Actor:

5. Joaquin Phoenix - The Master: In The Master Juaquin Phoenix played a character who indulged his every appetite, whether it involved drink, sex or violence. That is, until he stumbled upon June Carter...I mean a shady cult leader. Fortunately, he beat the shit out of Carter before she could go on to brainwash most of Hollywood in this thriller based upon the origins of the Church of Scientology in a parallel universe.

4. Denzel Washington - Flight: Denzel Washington plays a professional who emerges as a reluctant hero, but has substance abuse issues that come back haunt him. Sorry...But I've been there and done that. If Mathew Fox didn't win a Emmy for playing Jack Shephard in Lost, Denzel Washington certainly isn't winning an Oscar for his role in Flight.

3. Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables: Don't get me wrong, Hugh Jackman has a beautiful voice and great stage presence, but he'll take home a Tony long before he takes home an Oscar.

And based on this photo, Hugh Jackman will take home his Les Miserables co-star Amanda Seyfried long before he takes home his wife, Deborra-Lee Furness.

2. Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook: Bradley Cooper may have screwed himself forever in the eyes of the Academy in 2010 when he guest hosted an episode of WWE's Raw. However, as People Magazine's "Sexiest Man Alive," the Academy will gladly use him to hype up their red carpet ratings.

And with chiseled abs and an edgy tattoo, Bradley Cooper is Academy's new George Clooney.

1. Daniel Day Lewis - Lincoln: Daniel Day Lewis is in a position to potentially win a record breaking third Oscar for Best Actor, which would distinguish him from the likes of Spencer Tracy, Gary Cooper, Marlon Brando and Tom Hanks.

And if your guess was Tom Hanks, you win!

Best Actress:

5. Emmanuelle Riva - Amour: The oldest nominee for Best Actress in Oscar history at 85, Riva plays an octogenarian with rapidly declining health who is determined to stay out of a nursing home. And while she is said to play that role remarkably well, an 85-year-old lady playing the role of somebody who craps herself is about as impressive as Tom Cruise playing a cocky rule breaker who overcomes his personal deamons to save the day.

4. Naomi Watts - The Impossible: In The Impossible, Naomi Watts' plays the haunting role of real life super model Petra Nemcova, who lost her boyfriend in the devastating tsunami that hit Thailand in 2004. Not only did Nemcova miraculously survive that tragedy, but she coined the term "Tsunami chic" when she was found clinging to a tree to stay above the tidal wave with one hand, while smoking a cigarette and drinking a Diet Pepsi with the other when rescuers finally found her.

3. Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild: Not only is Quvenzhane Wallis the youngest Best Actress nominee ever at the age of 9. In fact, this year there is a 76 year age difference between the oldest (Emmanuella Reva) and the youngest nominees. The only problem fro Wallis is that Beasts of the Southern Wild was filmed with non professional, i.e., non union actors, meaning that as a "scab" she doesn't have a chance in Hell of winning accolades from the liberal Academy...Even though she was only 6 when Beasts of the Southern Wild was filmed.

2. Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook: Jennifer Lawrence portrays a young widow with an affinity for dancing. It's kind an on-screen adaption of Casey Anthony's post parental life...Wait a second, that's not "widow" means, is it?

1.  Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty: Jessica Chastain plays a female CIA agent who overcomes internal sexism and uses her interrogation skills to track down one of history's most notorious killers in the latest installment of Silence of the Lambs, much to Jodie Foster's chagrin.

Best Picture:

9. Django Unchained: Let's look at Quentin Tarantino's Oscar chances for Best Picture in the form of an analogy. "Woody Allen is to the Oscars as to Quentin Tarantino is to ______."

And when I tell you that the blank is "Golden Globes," you quickly realize why Tarantino's Django Unchained is ranked #9 out of nine films in the running for Best Picture at this year's Oscars.

As a side note, after his outburst backstage at this year's Golden Globes, Tarantino has now gotten away with saying the "N-word" more times without getting his ass kicked other than any other white guy in  the history of Hollywood who's not named Mel Gibson.

8. Les Miserables: A big screen adaptation of a classic literary and musical work. And while casual fans of the big screen seem to love Anne Hathaway and her outgoing lady parts, true fans of both the literary and musical versions seem to consider this variation a steaming pile of shit.

7. Amour: A foreign drama about love and aging as an elderly couple deals with the wife's failing health. The movie was considered a surprise success, mainly because the two lead characters, both well into their 80's, made it through filming without dying...Take that Larry Hagman!

6. The Life of Pi: It's like the producers of this film decided to remake the film Cast Away about being stranded on a beach with no modern amenities, only with Asian people. Unfortunately, Ang Lee didn't realize that a TV show called SURVIVOR has been telling the same story about Asian people nearly every week for the past 12 years.

5. Beasts of the Southern Wild: An art house film about a little girl living in a waterlogged post apocalyptic landscape following a catastrophic hurricane in Louisiana.

Rumor has it that Kevin Costner was in line to reprise his role in this Waterworld sequel until the film went in more of an art house direction with a cast of non-professional actors.

And while it appears as if super villain George W. Bush dies at the end of the movie, just enough doubt was left that he could return in  third and final film in what is sure to be a trilogy of Waterworld masterpieces.

4. Zero Dark Thirty:  Kudos to Kathryn Bigelow for beating Morgan Spurlock of Super Size Me fame to the punch in finding Osama bin Laden. In fact, she desperately needed the $25 million reward for finding him after The Hurt Locker flopped so bad at the box office.

3. Silver Linings Playbook: This film as a lead actor in Bradley Cooper who's bipolar, a lead actress in Jennifer Lawrence who's a depressed sex addict, and a supporting actor in Robert De Niro who's OCD. And while any of those roles would typically favored to win an Oscar in their respective category, this film is like the Kim Kardashian of films when it comes to trying too hard...Or at least any film that doesn't involve getting peed on by Ray J)

2. Lincoln: I know that Hollywood likes to look the other way when Directors take creative liberties with movies loosely based in historical fact, but I think Steven Spielberg went a little too far when he made Abraham Lincoln a vampire hunter.

1. Argo: Argo is an exciting Hollywood adaptation about a historical event that was relatively boring in real life. In short, any time where you can take a relatively boring historical event involving white people and take liberty with the facts to make the finish exciting, Hollywood loves it!..Kind of like the movie Hoosiers.

2012 Oscar Predictions From a Guy Who Doesn't Watch Movies: Return of The Artist

Before I get started on my fourth annual attempt at predicting the Oscar winners, let's start with some background information. As I state every year, I don’t watch or rent movies anymore. I pretty much stopped watching movies and DVD's when Hollywood studios began trying to out “special effect” each other in order to overcompensate for bad writing and a lack of original ideas, a/k/a "the George Lucas syndrome."

My formula for predicting the Academy Award winners despite not ever watching movies is simple. I use a combination of word of mouth, watching movie trailers, reading movie posters, and my own personal analysis of how Hollywood works.

So what type of film or role is the Academy looking for? Since I am not predicting the winner for Best Supporting Actor, let's take a look at the role Christopher Plummer played in The Beginners.

Plummer, who's 82-years-old, played an elderly man dealing with his decision to come out of the closet late in life. Much like in the movie Milk, where a actor like Sean Penn who's allegedly straight played the part of a gay man, a legendary Hollywood womanizer and carouser playing a new take on a gay character is exactly the type of thing that the Academy is looking for.

Let's look at it another way in the form of a question I received from a reader in Kleneth Falls, Oregon who came to my blog asking, "Why doesn't Will Smith have an Oscar?"

For the purposes of educating the masses, let's just pretend that this really was a serious question. Illustrated by way of multiple choice answers, here's the Academy's thought process as to why an actor like Will Smith may have been snubbed from winning an Oscar for all these years:

A)  Because he's a terrible actor;
B)  Because he's in terrible movies;
C)  Because these are the Oscars, not the Golden Globes;
D)  Because he's black;
E)  All the above.

If you chose E), "All the above," you either work for the Academy or you have a good understanding of how they think. Either way, you're ready to play along.

So without further ado, let's hope that the Academy ponied up this year and hired a host who can actually act so we can see how we did after we rank the nominees for Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Picture:

Best Actor:

5. Brad Pitt - Moneyball: Brad Pitt starred in two movies that were nominated for Best Picture. Of those two movies, Moneyball was not the one I would have expected to earn him a Best Actor nomination. And by the way Brad, doing an interview and saying that you don't really care much for baseball before you did the movie doesn't really show the Academy that you have range...The fact that he'll also give the show a big ratings boost probably didn't hurt his case for a nomination though.

4. George Clooney - The Descendants: Putting George Clooney in a Hawaiian shirt and saying that he made himself ugly is not going to cut it. Either go "all in" like Charlize Theron did in the movie Monster (to the extent that any future boyfriend of hers has to be at least slightly terrified to see what she looks like without make-up on), or just keep playing your debonair old self like you do in every other movie.

I hope George enjoys his prime seat at the Awards and his invites to all the A-List parties, because The Academy did him yet another favor by nominating him for Best Actor for his role in The Descendants. 

3. Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy: In Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy the normally eccentric Gary Oldman plays a cool and soft-spoken spy. Clearly, Oldman is following a poor man's version of the Robin Williams/Adam Sandler formula for success, where if you essentially spend your entire career coked up and/or acting like you should be in special classes, the first time you take on a role that is the least bit serious and dark you will receive immediate critical acclaim.

2. Demian Bichir - A Better Life: The story of a hard working illegal immigrant gardener trying to make a better life for his teenage son. Spoiler Alert! The scene where Bichir and his fellow immigrants get run out of Alabama due to the state's racist profiling laws, which as an unintended consequence causes all of the local strip clubs to shut down due to a lack of patrons, is a real tear-jerker.

1. Jean Dujardin - The Artist: This movie was a tribute to the silent movies of 1920's silverscreen. Dujardin's portrayal of an actor from that era is said to be brilliant, until you take into consideration that thespians in 1920's Hollywood were terrible. Want proof? I present to you the most direct Hollywood legacy link back to that era...Ms. Drew Barrymore!

Best Actress:

5. Rooney Mara - The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo: Rooney Mara winning a Best Actress Oscar in an American adaptation of a recent Swedish film would be equivalent to a hit British sitcom getting re-made in the States and getting all sorts of critical acclaim...Thank God Hollywood hasn't run out of ideas and sunk that low yet.

4. Michelle Williams - My Week With Marilyn: Then again, Hollywood really might be running out of story lines if you can get nominated for an Oscar simply by playing the role of an actress who won an Academy Award. Seriously though, someday, when Michelle Williams gets old and ugly, she'll be just as well respected for her acting skills as Meryl Streep and Glenn Close are...but she has to get old and ugly first.

3. Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs: Bonus points for doing a period piece that focuses on the proletariat and not the bourgeoisie. Points deducted for taking on a female cross dressing role. I'm not saying that Glenn Close doesn't look like a man, because she does. It's just that the female to male transgender role has already been played out in classic films like Boys Don't Cry, Sylvia Scarlett, Victor Victoria, Shakespeare in Love and Just One of the Guys. I don't exactly know where Hedwig and the Angry Inch fits in with those movies gender wise, but John Cameron Mitchell's role in that movie was far more deserving of a Best Actress Oscar than Close's role in Albert Nobbs.

"Hedwig and the Angry Inch" wasn't just a reference to the band's name.

2. Viola Davis - The Help: Critics are praising Viola Davis' weight fluctuation for this role. Shame on me for predicting that she'd never get another Oscar Nomination again for fear she'd get typecast after playing Precious.

1. Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady: What the fuck, now we have a male to female cross-dressing role? Oh wait, that's just Meryl Streep trying to portray former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Forget the fact that she didn't transform or even need make-up for this role, and so what if she's probably just the beneficiary of good casting, Meryl Streep looks just like Margaret Thatcher...and that's good enough for me.

Best Picture:

9. Moneyball: This movie was written by Aaron Sorkin, who also did The Social Network, another movie about a relatively recent story that would have been better off made as a TV movie or even a CSI episode. As we discussed last year, The Academy absolutely despises sports movies unless they're about fish out of water characters pursuing boxing, so I can't see Moneyball winning. Not only that, but as a baseball fan I steadfastly refuse to see this movie because of how factually inaccurate it was...Then again, this is Hollywood, and Hollywood don't care about minor details like the truth...Just look at any "documentary" Michael Moore's ever made.


As a Michigan State graduate, I'd like to formally request Michael Moore to stop wearing Michigan State hats in public. The University of Michigan is where all of the elitist slobs go to school in the state of Michigan, thank you...Even if most of them are east coast kids with good grades but who didn't have the minimal social activities like band or safety patrol to get into an Ivy League school. 

8. The Descendants: Making a movie starring George Clooney about dealing with feelings is kind of like making a movie about sex starring Dan Aykroyd and Rosie O'Donnell. I'm not saying movies like that can't be made, because unfortunately they were. I'm just saying that that movies like that shouldn't have been made.

7. Extremely Loud and Extremely Close: A supernatural fiction story about the aftermath of the 9-11 World Trade Center attacks designed to make money at the box office is about as tasteful as Ted Danson saying that he was allowed to dress up in blackface because he was dating Whoopi Goldberg at the time he did it. In hindsight, I think we can all agree that their "relationship" was a convenient cover for both of them. Ted got to use the "but my girlfriend is black excuse," while Whoopi was able to continue landing sexy A-List leading lady roles without coming out of the closet (Jumping Jack Flash anyone?). Not only did Extremely Loud and Extremely Close receive the lowest percentage (48%) on Rotten Tomatoes of any other movie nominated for the Best Picture Oscar, but it also stars Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock...presumably because first choices Billy Crystal and Meg Ryan were busy filming When Harry Met Sally, Too - Electric Boogaloo.

6. Hugo: Directed by Martin Scorsese? Yes! In 3-D? No! That's  kind of like bringing Gianni Versace back from the dead to do a line of clothing for Ed Hardy, or having Coco Chanel come back and do custom fitted designs for Juicy Couture. For the love of God, why can't Martin just knock off the crap and go back to making movies starring Robert De Niro? It would be good for both of their careers.

5. The War Horse: This movie is just a little too Forrest Gumpy to win an Oscar, although the horse probably did do a better job of tying a bunch historic events together than Tom Hanks did.

4. The Tree of Life: This movie was said to be an elliptical story pondering the origins of life...set in Texas in the 1950's...starring Brad Pitt. Yeah, that makes sense.

3. Midnight in Paris: Let's rate the level of culpability here in regards to crimes against our country's youth. Joe Paterno is dead, Jerry Sandusky is likely to go to prison, and Woody Allen is still free and subjecting us to movies starring Owen Wilson. Somewhere along the line our laws and justice system has failed us. And while we're talking about Wilson, can't we just have him sign on for a movie about WWF wrestler Owen Hart (who tragically died in the ring) and get it over with?



Not only does Owen Wilson look the part of Owen Hart, but he wouldn't even get confused by his character's name in the script...kind of like every part ever written for Tony Danza.

2. The Help: I liked it better when this movie was called Driving Miss Daisy.

1. The Artist: The Artist is supposedly a tribute to the silent film era of the 1920's. However, there's a reason that movies added color and sound as soon as that technology became available, as before that time they were God fucking awful. At the time the Oscar Nominations came out, The Artist had made less than a million dollars, still trailing many actual movies from the 1920's at the box office.

Nonetheless, at a time when too many movies are relying on CGI, we can expect the Academy to take a step in the other direction to find it's winner for Best Picture. Just remember, Hollywood is a copycat industry. Don't be surprised if we see Will Smith playing the role of early 20's African-American actor Lincoln Perry in a silent film documenting his life in a few years...And if it comes out in 3-D, that role just might bring him a Golden Globe.

Gettin' Jiggy Wit' It.   

2011 Oscar Predictions From a Guy Who Doesn't Watch Movies: The Golden Globes Strike Back

Before I get started on my third annual attempt at predicting the Oscar winners, let's start with some background information. As I state every year, I don’t watch or rent movies anymore.

I pretty much stopped watching movies and DVD's when Hollywood studios began trying to out “special effect” each other in order to overcompensate for bad writing and a lack of original ideas, a/k/a "the George Lucas syndrome."

My formula for predicting the Academy Award winners despite not ever watching movies is simple. I use a combination of word of mouth, watching movie trailers, reading movie posters, and my own personal analysis of how Hollywood works. Am I ready to give this yet another shot? Yo soy!

The most unique trend at the Oscars this year is that, unlike in the past, most of the films that were nominated did relatively well at the box office. Does this mean that the American public is starting to embrace "art-house" films? Or are the Oscars continuing their transition towards becoming The Golden Globes? With the Academy going with younger, hipper co-hosts in Anne Hathaway and James Franco this year in a clear attempt to boost ratings, I think they have pretty much indirectly given us the answer.

Another Oscar anomaly worth mentioning? Not a single African-American was nominated by the Academy for an Oscar this year. I mean seriously, couldn't they have put Will Smith up for a Lifetime Achievement Award or something? I have a feeling that there's going to be some serious elitist guilt going around Sunday night to overcompensate for an entire race of qualified actors being snubbed at this year's "Albino Awards."

My only question is what topic will generate more references from self righteous actors and actresses as they present and accept their awards? The lack of African-American nominees, or the labor unrest involving public sector unions in Wisconsin? In fact, put this up for debate at your own Oscar party and then put some money on it to make the show interesting.

I'm going on a limb and saying that the labor unrest in Wisconsin will generate more mentions, simply because the Hollywood elitist types like to pretend that they have real jobs by joining cute little clubs like "The Fraternal Order of Actors Local #420" just so they can proclaim that they are part of a real "brotherhood" as they sip on their "Fair Trade" soy lattes at some trendy coffee house.

Allright, it's time to get started. Let's rank the top ten films nominated for Best Picture, as well as the five nominees for Best Actor and Best Actress:

Best Picture:

10. The Social Network: This just as easily could have been a made for TV movie on a cable network like USA starring Anthony Michael Hall. It instead became one of the highest grossing box office films of the year and featured a boy band singer trying his hand at acting. Either way, the medium and casting for this film's premise was not quite Oscar worthy.

9. Toy Story 3: Toy Story 3 is the third installment in a series of animated films. So was Stars Wars: Revenge of the Sith. If Revenge of the Sith couldn't win the Oscar for Best Picture, then neither will Toy Story 3.

8. Inception: A smart movie for stupid people probably is not going to garner too much support from the Academy.

7. 127 Hours: If the producers could have combined 127 Hours with Into the Wild and still called it a non-fiction film then they might have been on to something. I can see the trailer now, "Based on a true story...Tom Cruise is In the Wild for 127 Hours!"

6. True Grit: The Coen brothers definitely have their own niche in Hollywood with their interpretations of classic works. Unfortunately they're just a little too witty for the Golden Globes, and not quite original enough for the Oscars.

5. The Fighter: While the Academy loves themselves some boxing movies, The Fighter is a bio-pic about a white-male boxer. That's just a little too Rocky these days to garner any real Oscar consideration. Now, if you took some liberties with history and made "Irish Mickey" a gutsy Indian fighter, and turned this film a Bollywood musical, then we might be able to talk.

4. The Kids Are All Right: Hmmm...A film about two lesbians adopting a child and dealing with the biological father. Despite the fact that the description of this film screams of a sitcom starring Jason Lee, Katherine Heigl and Ellen DeGeneres, It just might have some promise.

3. Winter's Bone: This sounds like a depressing, low budget, low grossing film. This film would have won the Oscar a few years back before the Academy decided to dumb things down for the American public.

2. Black Swan: Not that the plot was in any way slammed by the critics, but this screenplay just seemed like it was written primarily to highlight its characters rather than really tell a story. And yes, I'm still bitter that Natalie Portman got knocked up by Benajmin Millepied, whom she met as a result of making this movie.

1. The King's Speech: As an indictment as to why The Social Network won't win the Oscar for Best Picture, if this was a contemporary film it would have to do with Prince William fighting his male pattern baldness and convincing his girlfriend that she should still marry him before he takes the Thrown. Instead, just like a fine wine or wheel of cheddar cheese, we have an appropriately aged period piece about a historical figure who overcame a disability...Jesus, just give The King's Speech the damn award!

Best Actor:

5. Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network: If you get overshadowed by a former boy band member in a film, you don't deserve to win an Oscar.

4. Javier Bardem - Biutiful: When you are the second best actor in your family and your wife is Penelope Cruz, you don't deserve to win an Oscar.

3. Jeff Bridges - True Grit: Winning back to back Best Actor Oscars is kind of like winning the Heisman Trophy as an underclassman...If you don't follow it up with an even better season the next year then you simply aren't winning it again. Trying to do so while reprising the role of a legend (John Wayne won his only Best Actor Oscar for his role in True Grit in 1969) is kind of like dunking from the free throw line at the NBA Slam Dunk Contest...If you can pull it off you get high marks, but that alone isn't going to be enough to win since Dr. J was the one who made it famous. (sorry, I just had to work some sports into this blog post somewhere).

2. James Franco - 127 Hours: Even the writers of Castaway realized that Tom Hanks needed to converse with an inanimate volleyball for some comic relief in order to make that movie tolerable. Assuming that James Franco made a movie about a guy with his arm stuck under a rock for 127 hours watchable, then he must have done something right. Kudos to him, but this just doesn't quite feel like the type of movie that would generate an Oscar for Best Actor.

1. Colin Firth - The King's Speech: Period pieces featuring royalty roles have always done well when it comes to the Best Actor Award, as have roles that deal with people overcoming disabilities. Short of Tom Hanks having played a character who was both mentally retarded and homosexual this year, Firth is a mortal lock for the Best Actor Award.

Best Actress:

5. and 4. Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole/Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine: So how pissed do you think Katie Holmes is? Not only is her husband's ex-wife up for a Best Actress nomination, but so is Michelle Williams, who clearly played second fiddle to her when they were both on Dawson's Creek. I think it's pretty safe to say that Katie resents her overbearing husband and the whole Scientology "religion" for keeping her out of the 2011 Best Actress mix when they were responsible for forcing her to turn down the lead role in Sex and the City 2.

3. Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone: A relatively unknown actress in a dark film that didn't make much money...NOW we're talking about a serious Oscar contender!

2. Annette Benning - The Kids Are All Right: This is what happens to good looking actresses when they get old. While they can act better than ever, nobody really cares when they are up against a younger and prettier version who had a breakout performance in a tailor made role (and I'm not saying this just to be sexist, the winners of the Best Actress Oscar are traditionally much younger than their male counterparts, so bring it up with the Academy).



Whether it involves shaving her head, losing weight, getting pregnant while shooting, or putting up with George Lucas, nobody can say that Natalie Portman doesn't completely buy into whatever role she's playing.


1. Natalie Portman - Black Swan: Natalie Portman has been an actress in training for this award. Her entire career has been critically acclaimed (sans any mention of Queen Amidala or pairings with the likes of Ashton Kutcher). Not only did she purportedly push the envelope with a dark role in this film, but she "went DeNiro" and completely transformed her body (which was subsequently defiled by fiance Benajmin Millepied) for her role. Most importantly, Portman is a highly educated, well spoken and glowingly pregnant celebrity that the Academy would love to get all of the video and sound bites in which they otherwise dumbed things down a notch in order to get better ratings.

Oscar Predictions From a Guy Who Doesn't Watch Movies: Kathryn Bigelow - A New Hope

Before I get started on my second annual attempt at predicting the Oscar winners, let's start with some background. As I stated last year, I don’t watch or rent movies anymore. I pretty much stopped watching movies/DVD's when Hollywood studios began trying to out “special effect” each other in order to overcompensate for bad writing and a lack of original ideas, a/k/a "the George Lucas syndrome."

My formula for predicting Oscar winners is based upon a combination of word of mouth, watching trailers/reading movie posters, and my own personal analysis of how Hollywood works. Am I ready to give this another shot? Yo soy!

Best Picture:

The Academy created some controversy amongst the movie purists this year in electing to nominate 10 films for best picture instead of 5 in order to generate some extra ratings buzz. With a diluted field of nominees this year the Academy voters will be ranking their favorite films from 1-10 instead of voting for a single winner.

Fortunately, everyone involved in the voting process agrees that this was pretty much the best idea that the Academy has ever come up with. Now let's start out by eliminating some of the pretenders that are just happy to get an invite to the party.

1. The Blind Side: This is a feel good sports fluff piece, and the Academy hates feel good sports fluff pieces. The only sports flicks that the Academy likes are dark movies about boxing. Did you know that Rocky won the Oscar for Best Picture in 1976? Of course, Rocky II, III, IV & V are all reasons why the Academy is reluctant to ever give the Best Picture Oscar to a sports movie again. Million Dollar Baby is an exception because it fits the Academy's fish out of water formula, in that it had a beautiful girl playing a role where the lead character was using an unexpected medium in boxing to change the lives and perceptions of others.

2. District 9: District 9 is a science fiction film. You're about as likely to see the Academy give the Best Picture Oscar to a science fiction movie as you are to see Sarah Palin and Levi Johnston walking out of the Kwik-E-Mart with a bottle of tequila and a pack of condoms. Then again, there's always a chance.

3. Up: This movie seems to have been pretty well received on an artistic level. However, the fact that animated films have their own category gives the Academy a pretty easy bailout on this one.

4. and 5. Inglorious Basterds and Up in the Air: These nominations were just excuses for George Clooney and Co. to be a prominent features on the red carpet and at the after parties.

6. A Serious Man: An art house movie? Oooh. A black comedy? Ahhh. Directed by the Coen brothers? Thank you, come again.

7. An Education: I really don't know anything about this film, which is causing me serious doubts as to why I am eliminating it from contention.

8. Precious: I'm cutting Precious for no other reason than it comes to the Academy Awards as a Hollywood outsider. If Precious were a real person the Academy would fly her in and talk about how wonderful she was to make themselves look good in public, and then make fun of her by saying how tacky her outfit was the first time that she left the room to take a poop.

That limits the Best Picture field down to our two finalists, Avatar and The Hurt Locker. As a side story that the Academy could only have dreamed of, Avatar was directed by Hollywood mogul James Cameron, who is the ex-husband of The Hurt Locker director Kathryn Bigelow. I've heard their rivalry described as "friendly," but trust me, there is no such thing as a friendly rivalry when it comes to ex-wives.

In order to determine the Best Picture winner, I was fortunate enough to obtain a copy of the Academy's official scoring ballot. Let's walk through that card and figure out who our winner is going to be:

1. Does the film utilize Computer-Generated Imagery (CGI)? If yes, subtract 10 points. (If the film used CGI and you are voting for the Golden Globes, then add 10 points).
-Avatar minus 10, The Hurt Locker 0.

2. Does the film employ a groundbreaking form of technology? If yes, add 5 points.
-Avatar minus 5, The Hurt Locker 0.

3. Was the film recognized for its artistic medium? If yes, add 10 points.
-Avatar minus 5, The Hurt Locker 0.

4. Was the film one of the highest grossing movies in the history of Hollywood? If yes, subtract 3 points.
-Avatar minus 8, The Hurt Locker 0.

5. If film's director has an ex-spouse who directed some of the highest grossing films in the history of Hollywood, then add 5 points.
-Avatar minus 8, The Hurt Locker 5.

6. Was the film critically acclaimed, yet a failure at the box office? If yes, add 5 points.
-Avatar minus 8, The Hurt Locker 10.

7. Was the film independently produced? If yes, add 3 points.
-Avatar minus 10, The Hurt Locker 13.

8. Did the film advance a liberal political message? If yes, add 5 points.
-Avatar minus 5, The Hurt Locker 18.

9. Did the film have a lead character who was gay (but only if portrayed by a straight actor) or mentally challenged? If yes, add 10 points.
-Avatar minus 5, The Hurt Locker 18.

10. Was the film's director Woody Allen? If yes, write the name of his film on your card and seal it in the envelope. If the film's director was James Cameron, add 3 points.
-Avatar minus 2, The Hurt Locker 18.

11. Was there a romance in the film that was or could have been socially frowned upon? If yes, add 10 points.
-Avatar 8, The Hurt Locker 18.

12. Did the story involve a role where the lead character was a "fish out of water?" If yes, add 5 points.
-Avatar 13, The Hurt Locker 23.

And in a surprising landslide win, the Oscar for Best Picture goes to The Hurt Locker!

Best Actor:

Wow, talk about a turd with a new coat of paint! It sounds as if Jeff Bridges is the runaway choice to win best actor for his role in Crazy Heart, which one article that I read described as a reprise of "Dude" from The Big Lebowski - only with country music.

Leading candidate or not, I can't roll with that, nor does it fit the Academy's profile. George Clooney is not going to win the Oscar until he takes a roll outside of his image and comfort zone and blows us all away. Morgan Freeman has been there and done that, so I don't see him winning either.

I can't see The Hurt Locker taking home Oscars in two of the major categories, so I'm throwing Jeremy Renner out as well. Therefore, by process of elimination, the Oscar for Best Actor goes to Colin Firth for his role in A Single Man.

Best Actress:

Sandra Bullock is supposed to be a favorite for her roll in The Blind Side, but like the favorite in the category for Best Actor I'm not buying it. I've watched the trailers for this movie and all I see is bubble gum and overacting. Hell, I write for a sports blog and I didn't even have any desire to see this movie.

As always, Meryl Streep will garner consideration for her role in Julie and Julia, which would probably be the one movie I'd want to watch of any of the Oscar nominated films. Unfortunately, I'm more interested in Amy Adams's role than I am in Streep's portrayal of Julia Childs.

So when it comes down to it, I think the Best Actress Oscar goes to Gabourey Sidibe as Precious, but only so George Clooney can walk her on stage under false pretenses to give an unsuspecting Sidibe a "Carrie" like moment as the audience watches in horror, and the Academy slyly exits stage left having delivered their message loud and clear to any and all Hollywood outsiders.

Oscar Predictions From a Guy Who Doesn't Watch Movies

I don’t pretend to be a Hollywood insider. In fact, I don’t even watch movies anymore. I pretty much stopped watching movies/DVD's when Hollywood studios began trying to out “special effect” each other in order to overcompensate for bad writing and a lack of original ideas. Let’s just call this "the George Lucas syndrome."

So why the hell do I want to take a shot at predicting some of the major award winners at this year’s Oscars? As my four year old son would over enunciate, “I - don’t - know.”

Maybe it is a cross between arrogance and masochism. In any event, my formula for predicting this year's Oscar winners is based upon a combination of word of mouth, watching trailers/reading movie posters, and my own personal analysis of how Hollywood works. Shall I give this a shot? Yo soy!

Best Actress:

This is a rather weak group in my mind. In spite of the buzz about the personalities and personal lives of some of the nominated actresses, I have not heard anybody talk about any of their specific performances. Accordingly, I am looking at this as more of a popularity contest.

This is kind of like a high school Homecoming Court. You end up nominating the most popular girl from each clique in school and let the masses sort it out. And let’s face it, many of these Hollywood types never went to conventional school to begin with, so these award shows really do serve as their homecoming dances and proms.

The "hottest girl in school" (Angelina Jolie) almost always gets nominated. While the "hottest girl in school" gets a lot of support just for being hot, everyone knows that she still has a lot of personality flaws and simply doesn't deserve to win the honor. The fact that she is not deep enough to win secretly devastates the "hottest girl in school," so she spends the next year overcompensating by getting tattoos, dating older men, and/or adopting children from all over the world.

The Homecoming Court also always nominates the prettiest girl from the academic/student council circle (Meryl Streep). While she has been an upstanding member of the school for years and really can do no wrong in the eyes of her peers, unless she did something before the big dance that just blew everyone away, like writing an article in the school paper exposing the gym coach for having a peep hole in the girls locker room, she simply is not going to win. And as far as I know, Meryl didn't break any significant stories about peep holes this year.

The “I really don’t know her, but she’s really kind of cool and hot girl” (Melissa Leo). This is the girl who probably deserves to win. The fact that she is nominated in spite of the fact that most people don’t know really who she is speaks volumes as to how respected she is. Even though only a small group of people really ever get to know her, the conviction of those who do is enough to get her a nomination. While many people secretly think about voting for her, they chicken out at the last second and go with the more talked about “mainstream” choice due to peer pressure, which has been sociologically proven to be stronger than The Force in the context of high school and Hollywood.

While a mainstream girl's world would collapse in the event that they don't win, the “secretly hot girl” can take everything in stride and continue to rock on with her bad-self because she doesn't need or even want the affirmation of popular crowd. Quite simply, this is the girl who will continue to get even hotter after she gets out high school (the Oscar nominated role in question), and you will never find her in the position where she continues to act like a diva after her two to three year run of popularity is over and she has gained a bunch of weight (think any cheerleader that you ever knew in high school or Russell Crowe).

The “perfect couple” girl (Kate Winslet) versus the “Cinderella story” (Anne Hathaway). Kate Winslet is the girl who has been dating the most popular guy in school (let’s call him “Leo”) forever, and has been a regular on the Homecoming Court since her freshman year. She is up against the girl who was held back by bad circumstances like an asshole boyfriend, but she cuts the baggage and wins everyone’s adoration and respect at exactly the right time.

The Winner – Anne Hathaway. Let’s just forget about the fact that everyone in the world knew or should have known that her fiance was crooked before he was formally indicted, and that it would have almost been impossible for her not to have known about his involvement in some shady shit. It’s downright politically incorrect to say anything bad about Anne Hathaway these days. She has become Hollywood's “it girl," and for that reason I cannot envision any scenario where she does not end up riding her present wave of popularity to an Oscar win for Best Actress.

Best Actor:

As far as I can tell there are only three real contenders for this award. When it comes down to it, there are probably only two.

While I have heard people mention Brad Pitt for The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttons, for every person that has told me that the movie was good, there have been two others that have told me that it was horrible. On top of that, I have heard people say that Pitt was not acting at all, but merely playing himself. Not that this disqualifies you from critical acclaim as an actor (see Robert Redford). So while I actually gained a great deal of respect for Brad Pitt after watching his performance as a gypsy in Guy Ritchie’s Snatch, The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttons just wasn’t the right role for Pitt to win the Oscar for Best Actor.

I have heard nothing but great things about Sean Penn’s role as Harvey Milk in the movie Milk. I am currently reading the book And The Band Played On by Randy Shilts. Not only does that book make reference to Harvey Milk in a historical context, but it examines some of the social issues that he stood up for in a parallel look at that era from a public health perspective. Needless to say, the role of Harvey Milk was destined to be pure gold for whatever actor landed it.

It is no secret that one of the quickest ways for an actor to gain critical acclaim in Hollywood has been to play a character who is mentally retarded. Just look at Dustin Hoffman's role in Rainman, Leonardo Dicaprio’s role in What’s Eating Gilbert Grape?, Johnny Depp’s role in Benny and June, Tom Hank’s role in Forrest Gump, Billy Bob Thorton's role in Sling Blade, and Chris Burke's role as “Corky” on Life Goes On.

Ultimately, people figured out that playing someone who is mentally retarded may actually be one of the easiest roles that there is....that is, aside from actors like Tom Cruise and Robert Redford who play versions of themselves" in virtually every movie that they are in. So something had to give, right? I mean there are only so many compelling stories that can be told about the mentally challenged, right? Well it has already happened….Gay is the new retard in Hollywood right now.

A straight actor who takes on the role of a homosexual is almost guaranteed to receive critical acclaim. It's like when the purportedly caucasian C. Thomas Howell played an African-American in Soul Man, only completely the opposite in terms of respect and perceptions of biggotry. Just look at Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal in Brokeback Mountain, Mathew Broderick in Bonfire of the Vanities, and Tom Hanks in Philadelphia.


I would like to note that Hanks won back to back Oscars in 1993 and 1994 for playing someone who is gay (Philadelphia) and someone who is mentally retarded (Forrest Gump). So here is some food for thought....is Tom Hanks really that great of an actor, or was his agent just ahead of the curve on Hollywood's formula for success?).

Of course, this formula only works for seemingly STRAIGHT actors. If Alexis Arquette, Neil Patrick Harris, Orlando Bloom, or Tim Robbins were to play a gay character they would not receive any sort of critical acclaim unless they outperformed their personal lives in terms of their acting.

That scenario would be akin to Tom Cruise playing a version of himself in movies like All the Right Moves, Cocktail, Top Gun and, well, every other movie that he's ever been in. Were those roles enjoyable? Yes. Did I like watching to Cruise dance around the house in his underwear? Yes (secretly). Were any of those performances Oscar worthy? Of course not.

So with all this being said, Sean Penn’s career will be positively impacted by his role in Milk regardless of whether or not he gets the Oscar, and he's a definite contender for this year's award for Best Actor.

People loved the movie Rocky. In fact, it even won as Oscar. It is about a white fighter who seemingly squandered his talent, but realizes his true potential and puts it all together at the end of his career. Essentially, based upon his performance in the movie The Wrestler, Mickey Rourke is a REAL LIFE version of Rocky.

Despite a wealth of potential and talent early in his film career, Rourke seemingly squandered it by chasing booze and women, taking on soft-core porn like roles, and walking away from acting in order to become a mediocre semi-pro boxer. Then, just when you think he is old and washed-up, he sells his soul and body in order to come back for his role in The Wrestler.

From what I have heard from people in the pro wrestling industry, Rourke completely bought into the lifestyle (think performance enhancing drugs, pain pills and plastic surgery). In fact, you can argue that Mickey Rourke has lived his entire life in preparation for his role in The Wrestler.

The Winner – Mickey Rourke for his role in The Wrestler. Not only was he the only guy who could have convincingly played that character, but he also completely bought into his role in terms of mind and body. Think of De Niro's weight gains/lossess for films, but with long term health risks.

While Sean Penn purportedly nailed his role as Harvey Milk, Mickey Rourke actually BECAME The Wrestler. I don't know if the fact that Rourke has subsequently been asked to perform at one of pro wrestling's bigger events shows that he nailed the role so well that he has been accepted as brethren, or whether it cheapens his success. I'm going with a combination of both.

In any event, Rourke delivered the acting performance of his lifetime in becoming The Wrestler, while Sean Penn will eventually find other roles like those that he landed in I am Sam and Milk. In fact, I am pretty certain that he and Tom Hanks have the same agent. On the other hand, this was a once in a lifetime chance for Mickey Rourke, which he promptly capitalized on by by challenging Bai Ling to a race to see who could give the other a sexually transmitted disease first.

Best Picture:

I think it will come down to Milk against Slumdog Millionaire for the Best Picture award. I hear that Slumdog was amazing. It had so much "feel good" buzz about it that it was my original choice to win the award for Best Picture.

My biggest problem with Slumdog is that everyone involved with that film appears content just to have received a nomination. For example, when your leading male actor uses a Best Picture nomination in his first real film as a forum to assert that his career goal is to one day "be in a Will Smith movie," even if it is "just a small role," then I just can't take you seriously.

I mean, what if Slumdog won Best Picture and Dev Patel got on stage and said something to that effect during the acceptance speech? Would the Academy even allow that to become even a remote possibility? I'm pretty sure that they would pay D.J. Jazzy Jeff to pull Dev aside as the cast walked to the stage and say, "I know exactly how you feel, but I'm sorry kid, I can't let you go up there." You simply can't have one of your high profile performers lobbying for a Golden Globe type role at the Oscars.

There is simply no chance in hell that Slumdog prevails over an outstanding performance from an established actor like Sean Penn in an incredibly well done film from director Gus Van Sant. Especially not when the Academy knows that their biggest risk is that Sean Penn will give a speech about how happy he is that Barrack Obama is rectifying the human rights abuses that were committed by the Bush Administration. In fact, they love that kind of stuff.

The Winner - Milk.