Final NFL Mock Draft

I would like to discuss the philosophy behind how teams draft. Specifically, should teams draft for need or do you take the best player available regardless of need? I think my Detroit Lions serve as the perfect example to answer this question. In the Matt Millen era, their record clearly shows that in the first round the Lions look the best player on their board regardless of his position or their needs (think WR's like Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, Mike Williams, and finally Calvin Johnson) while in the later rounds they fell in love with players at positions of need and reached or even traded up to take those players much earlier than they were projected to go. The correct answer to the question at hand is that in the early rounds teams need to take the best player available AT A POSITION OF NEED, while in the later rounds you simply have to take the best player available regardless of the position. The Lions approached the draft completely back-asswards, and as a result had some of the worst draft results in NFL history over the past 9 years.

With that being said, and after trying to sort through all of the legitimate inforamation, rumors and smokescreens, here is my final mock draft for 2009.

1. Detroit Lions - Matt Stafford - QB, Georgia; In spite of all the questions surrounding Matt Stafford, the Lions decide to mortgage their next five years on their assumption that he can be a franchise NFL QB in spite of a college career that never quite lived up to expectation.

2. St. Louis Rams - Jason Smith - T, Baylor; Alex Barron has been a disappointment thus far, so it is way too much of a reach to assume that he can transition to LT in the wake of Orlando Pace's departure. The Rams absolutely need a franchise LT, and Jason Smith has a little more upside than Eugene Monroe.

3. Kansas City Chiefs - Aaron Curry - LB, Wake Forrest; The Chiefs would like to trade down, but instead go with Curry as a dominant linebacker to anchor their new defensive scheme. I truly believe that the Tyson Jackson rumors are just a smokescreen to guage Denver's interest in him since they have two fist round picks to move up, as Kansas City needs a rush end over a run stuff end like Jackson. While Curry was not asked to rush the passer in college, he seems to have the skill-set to be able to do so in the pros if called upon.

4. Seattle Seahawks - Eugene Monroe - T, Virginia.; The QB rumors are just a smokescreen. Matt Hasselbeck appears healthy, and the team desperately needs help on the offensive line.

5. Cleveland Browns - Brian Orakpo - DE, Texas; The Browns desperately need to get to the quarterback. While they are rumoured to be interested in B.J. Raji, there is simply no way that they would start or pay a three DT's in Shawn Rogers, Corey Williams and B.J. Raji in a 3-4 scheme. Their interior DL is already set, and the Browns desperately need an outside pass rusher like Orakpo.

6. Cincinnati Bengals - Andre Smith- OT, Alabama; The Tank Johnson signing lets the Bengals concentrate on their offensive line problems. While Smith's meltdown at the Combine causes him to slide from the first to the third tackle selected in the draft, the Bengals can't pass up a windfall at their position of biggest need.

7. Oakland Raiders - Michael Crabtree, WR - Texas Tech; The Raiders need to give Jamarcus Russell a receiving threat, and Crabtree is as good as there is in this year's draft.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars - Jeremy Maclin, WR - Missiouri; Even with Torry Holt signing in Jacksonville, a rookie receiver to play opposite and learn from him still makes sense. I think the Jags will trade down here with a suitor for Mark Sanchez, and still be able to acquire Maclin.

9. Green Bay Packers - B.J. Raji, DT - Boston College.; The Packers turn to the prototypical NT to anchor their new 3-4 defense and go for the 'tweener DE/LB's in later rounds.

10. San Francisco 49'ers - Aaron Maybin, DE/LB - Penn St; I think that the 49'ers wind up the big losers at the #10 spot. Neither Maclin nor Crabtree end up falling to them at WR, and Sanchez shoots so far up the board that San Francisco is forced to pick a hybrid DE in Maybin.

11. Buffalo Bills - Michael Oher, T - Ole Miss; After trading Jason Peters to Philly, Buffalo has an immediate need at LT. While they could use a DE or a TE like Brandon Pettigrew, there is no guarantee that a true LT will fall to their second first round pick at # 28. Accordingly, they have no choice but to go with Michael Oher, as Langston Walker simply does not project to the left side.

12. Denver Broncos - Tyson Jackson, DE - LSU; Rumor is that Jackson could now go before Denver picks at #12, which simply makes no sense since he is a run stopping end as opposed to a pass rusher. I simply can't see an end who will be off the field on third downs going in the top ten. If a team tries to bluff Denver into trading up for Jackson, I think they pass. On the other hand, with San Diego apparently having an interest in Jackson at #16, the Broncos take Jackson, a prototypical 3-4 DE, if he falls to #12 and see what other defensive needs are available at #18.

13. Washington "Pigskins" - Robert Ayers DE - Tennessee; After releasing Jason Taylor, the "Pigskins" still need a pass rush specialist.

14. New Orleans Saints - Michael Jenkins, CB/S - Ohio State; While the Saints have used free agency to plug their biggest holes at LB and CB, Jenkins' versatility in being able to play CB or S makes him too valuable to pass up.

15. Houston Texans - Brian Cushing, OLB - USC; In spite of the Texans signing some stop gap free agent linebackers, they go with a long term solution in Brian Cushing since New Orleans takes Jenkins one spot ahead of them.

16. San Diego Chargers - Rey Maualuga, MLB - USC; If Maualuga falls this far, the thought of him teaming with a healthy Sean Merriman is downright frightening.

17. New York Jets - Mark Sanchez, QB - USC; I think the Jets trade into the top ten to pick Sanchez. The team is too good and too playoff ready to rely upon Kellen Clemens as their sole option at quarterback. The more I think about the Chiefs' interest in Tyson Jackson, the more I wonder if that interest isn't at the 17th spot (following a trade with the Jets), one pick before Denver picks at #18, who are known to have an interest in Jackson as well.

18. Denver Broncos (from Chicago Bears) - Everett Brown, DE/LB - Florida State; The Broncos go with the best 3-4 pass rush DE/LB coming into the draft. The Broncos hope that he fares better than his Florida State counter parts over the past decade.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Josh Freeman, QB - Kansas State; In spite of the Byron Leftwich signing, the Bucs still need a long term answer at QB. Leftwich merely gives the team a veteran mentor/insurance policy in case Freeman happens to be gone by the time they pick.

20. Detroit Lions (from Dallas Cowboys) - Peria Jerry, DT - Ole Miss; The Lions need a run stuff defensive tackle to play opposite, and eventually take over for Grady Jackson.

21. Philadelphia Eagles - Knowshon Moreno, RB - Georgia; The Eagles solidified their offensive line by trading for Jason Peters. Assuming that they don't use their second #1 pick to trade for a WR, Knowshon Moreno seems like the choice to take over some of Brian Westbrook's between the takcles workload.

22. Minnesota Vikings - Percy Harvin, WR - Florida; Harvin's off the field issues may not be a good fit with Minnesota, but his overall talent and ability to make plays does. When it comes to talent alone, Harvin is viewed as a clear top 25 player.

23. New England Patriots - Clay Mathews, OLB - USC; New England filled their secondary holes with Lee Bodden & Shawn Springs. The Pats always need LB's in their 3-4 defense, and that is especially true this year since they are aging at that position. Clay Mathews should be able to step in and contribute right away.

24. Atlanta Falcons - Ziggy Hood, DT - Missouri; With Atlanta trading for Tony Gonzalez, they can let Pettigrew slide and concentrate on defense. I hear that Vontae Davis is not a consideration at CB because of character, and with the 3 USC LB's that they covet already off the board, they take a DT to help with their run defense.

25. Miami Dolphins - Kenny Britt, WR - Rutgers; I really have a hard time seeing Bill Parcels draft an unproven WR in the first round, but so many people are saying this I have bought in.

26. Baltimore Ravens - Darrius Heyward - Bey: WR - Maryland; While they are purported to have an interest in Pettigrew, I can't see the Ravens going in that direction with L.J. Smith, Heap, and Wilcox already on the roster. Derrick Mason is not getting any younger, and Heyward-Bey could add a deep threat while learning under his tutiledge.

27. Indianapolis Colts - James Laurinaitis, LB - Ohio State; The Colts could use a DT, but Bill Polian doesn't draft for need. He also loves Big Ten players. Laurinaitis fits in as the best available "football player" at this point in the draft.

28. Buffalo Bills - (from Carolina Panthers via the Philapelphia Eagles) - Brandon Pettigrew, TE - OK St. The Bills still need a pass rusher to compliment Aaron Schobel, but can probably wait until their first pick in the second round to target someone like Michael Johnson, Larry English, Lawrence Sidbury, Connor Barwin, or Paul Kruger.

29. New York Giants - Hackeem Nicks, WR - North Carolina; With Plaxico Burress' officially having been cut, the Giants desperately need to develop a big time receiver in order to get back to being a Super Bowl caliber team. Nix appears to have the size and hands to eventually replace Plax, assuming the G-men don't land someone like Anquan Boldin Chad Johnson via a trade before the draft. Nicks reminds me of Dwayne Bowe of Kansas City.

30. Tennessee Titans - Alphonso Smith, CB - Wake Forrest - I think it comes down Alphonso Smith or WR Kenny Britt. The Titans have already lost Chris Carr and Eric King in their secondary, so some depth at cornerback makes the most sense. While Vontae Davis might still be on the board, I get the impression that the Titans have him ranked behind Smith. Don't rule out a trade here for WR's Anquan Boldin or Chad Johnson. Defensive linemen Michael Johnson, Larry English, Lawrence Sidbury, Connor Barwin, Paul Kruger and Ron Brace may be considerations later in round two.

31. Arizona Cardinals - Donald Brown, RB - U Conn: Arizona's potent offense still has a big hole at RB. With Hightower already a proven goal line runner, an all purpose back like Brown could be the perfect compliment if Chris "Beanie" Wells is off the board.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers - Max Unger, C-G - Oregon; The Steelers could upgrade their line depth with Unger, or they could solidify their defensive backfield with someone like Vontae Davis, Darrius Butler or D.J. Moore in order to replace Bryant McFadden, although I hear that the Steelers are happy with William Gay as his replacement. With Pittsburgh freeing up enough cap space to sign Keiwan Ratliff at cornerback just before the draft, they use the last pick in the first round to sure up their offensive line. Defensive tackle is also a strong consideration if someone like "Ziggy" Hood were to slide.

Post-Combine NFL Mock Draft

Heading in to version 2.0 of my mock draft, the biggest news has to be the Denver Broncos trading franchise quarterback Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears. For the last week, sports talk radio and the major networks covering the NFL have debated who was at fault for Cutler's departure from Denver. Was Cutler a whiney malcontent who couldn't deal with a regime change? Or did the Broncos brass decieve Cutler in trying to acquire a replacement for him in Matt Cassel?

Regardless of who's side you take, I recently started thinking about something in this deal that simply did not make sense. Namely, if the Denver Broncos were so convinced that they needed Cassel to run Josh McDaniels' new offensive system (which is evidenced by the fact that the risked alienating a young and salary cap friendly franchise quarterback), how is it that they let their division rival Kansas City Chiefs trump them in their trade offer to obtain him from the New England Patriots? I initially wondered who was to blame in the Denver organization for this gaff? Was it Josh McDaniels' fault for not telling the organization that he really wanted and needed Cassel to run his offense instead of Cutler before he was hired? Was it Brian Xander's fault for being too stingy to offer more than a second round draft pick in order to obtain their targeted guy in Matt Cassel from New England? Or was it owner Pat Bowlen's fault for firing Mike Shanahan and allowing this whole mess to happen in the first place?

As much as I wanted to assume that Denver really wanted Matt Cassel over Jay Cutler as their quarterback, things simply did not add up. This caused my conspiracy theory chip to kick in. So I started to wonder if the Denver Broncos were ever truly interested in Matt Cassel to begin with, or did they simply want to create an excuse to unload Cutler for draft picks (in order to improve their defense) without alienating their fan base/season ticket holders?" Think about it for just a second. If the Broncos were really seriously interested in obtaining Matt Cassel to the extent that they would engage in secret trade discussions behind Cutler's back, don't you think that the organization would have been willing to part with more than a second rounder to obtain him from New England? If Denver was truly convinced that Matt Cassel was the guy that they needed to run Josh McDaniels' new offense, then shouldn't it have been a no-brainer that they would've offered more than the second round pick (#35 overall) that Kansas City gave up in order to acquire Cassel AND pass rusher Mike Vrabel? If you're Denver and you really wanted Cassel, you would've offered your second and third round picks this year, right? And if that wasn't enough, you would've offered your second round picks from for this AND next year's draft, right? I could keep going on and on here, but you get the picture. If the Broncos were really convinced that Matt Cassel was the guy they needed, they would have done whatever it took to acquire him, right? For the interest that the Broncos were purported to have in Matt Cassel, Kansas City got him WAY, WAY too cheap. That leads me to believe that Denver feigned their interest in Cassel and created a bidding war for Cutler in order to obtain the draft picks that they really wanted in order to bolster their defense.

Now the rumor is that Denver wants to use one of their first round picks to select quarterback Mark Sanchez out of USC. My response is NO....FREAKIN'....WAY! No way do they use a first round pick on an unproven quarterback when this whole mess began because they had purported interest in an established QB for whom they wouldn't give up more than their second rounder for. Denver is taking nothing but defense in the first round, and that is all they ever really wanted to do to begin with. All you have to do is read between the lines. The Denver Broncos front office may think that they are being smart, but I'm not stupid....Now, on to the mock draft.

1. Detroit Lions - Jason Smith - T, Baylor; The Lions want to trade down. They are trying to create a market for Matt Stafford that just doesn't exist. It looks like they will end up having to take premium tackle Jason Smith and move Jeff Backus to guard, which he may or may not be able to play. Backus should be aware that the Lions have signed a number of free agent tackles and guards this off-season, which could make him expendible if the Lions are willing to take the cap hit in releasing him.

2. St. Louis Rams - Eugene Monreoe - T, Virginia; With Orlando Pace having been released and the Lions taking a tackle at #1 in Jason Smith, the Rams go with the next best option in Eugene Monroe, who might be more pro-adept at this point in his career.

3. Kansas City Chiefs - Brian Orakpo - DE, Texas; After trading DE Jared Allen to Minnesota last season, the Chiefs former Defensive Coordinator talked about how much Allen was missed. Accordingly, the Chiefs go with the draft's best available defensive end after a sensational combine and pro-day workout.

4. Seattle Seahawks - Matt Stafford - QB, Georgia.; I'm not convinced that Seattle isn't putting up a smokescreen in purporting to have interest in a QB. I'm not convinced that they really don't want Michael Curry. I think Seattle will try to trade this pick to a team that really does want to move up in order to select Stafford. At a lower slot the Seahawks could target Mark Sanchez, who is better suited to run the west coast offense.

5. Cleveland Browns - Michael Curry - LB, Wake Forrest; The Browns would like for Curry to be the focal point of their 3-4 defense under new head coach Eric Mangini.

6. Cincinnati Bengals - Andre Smith- OT, Alabama; The Tank Johnson signing lets the Bengals concentrate on their offensive line problems. While Smith's meltdown at the Combine causes him to slide from the first to the third tackle selected in the draft, the Bengals can't pass up a windfall at their biggest need.

7. Oakland Raiders - B.J. Raji, DT - Boston College; Al Davis loves speed. Al Davis is tight lipped about who he is going to select. Surprisingly, Al Davis ignores speed and the WR position and solidfies his trenches by selecting bad boy B.J. Raji.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars - Michael Crabtree, WR - Texas Tech; Sadly, since my last post former first rounder Reggie Williams has joined R.J. Soward and Matt Jones in the land of former Jaguar first round receivers who have been cut AND busted for drugs. The Jags try to hit with a WR once again and go with the best talent on the board in Michael Crabtree.

9. Green Bay Packers - Everett Brown, DE - Fla. St.; Brown is a highly rated pass rusher who probably fits best in a 3-4 defensive scheme, which conveniently the Packers are switching to this season.

10. San Francisco 49'ers - Jeremy Maclin, WR - Missouri; The 49'ers are badly in need of a WR. They could trade down with the Jets or Tampa Bay, who would be interested in selecting Mark Sanchez.

11. Buffalo Bills - Robert Ayers, DE - Tennessee; Buffalo does the logical thing and goes with the rising pass rush stud in Robert Ayers over Brandon Pettigrew at TE.

12. Denver Broncos - Rey Malaualuga, MLB - USC; I'm not buying into the Mark Sanchez rumors here. It's a smokescreen to trade down and get more picks. In any event, Sanchez will be gone by the 12 spot. Denver takes Malaualuga at #12 in order to prevent division rival San Diego from taking him, knowing that there is a better chance that Tyson Jackson will still be available at their second first round pick at #18 pick than there is for Malaualuga.

13. Washington "Pigskins" - Aaron Maybin, DE - Penn State; After releasing Jason Taylor, the "Pigskins" still need a pass rush specialist.

14. New Orleans Saints - Brian Cushing, OLB - USC; While the Saints could go CB/S with Malcolm Jenkins, their biggest need is at OLB, and Cushing appears to be their guy.

15. Houston Texans -Malcolm Jenkins, CB - Ohio State; It looked like the Texans would go linebacker until they signed Cato June and Buster Davis this week. They could still use a corner in addition to a safety, and Jenkins could fill either need.

16. San Diego Chargers - Michael Oher, T - Ole Miss; They would love to have Malaualaga fall here, but I think he's gone. Oher is a perfect pick to provide depth on the line while he gains some needed seasoning before he eventually becomes a starter.

17. New York Jets - Mark Sanchez, QB - USC; I still think the Jets trade into the top ten to pick Sanchez. The team is too good and too playoff ready to rely upon Kellen Clemens as their sole option at quarterback.

18. Denver Broncos (from Chicago Bears) - Tyson Jackson, DE - LSU; The Broncos get the DE end they originally targeted at #12 before acquiring a second first round pick from the Bears, and at a much better contract.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Josh Freeman, QB - Kansas State; With Jeff Garcia moving on to Oakland, and with Tampa cutting ties with former quarterback of the future Chris Simms last season, the Bucs reunite their offensive coordinator with his former college QB. No way do they enter the season with Luke McCown as their starting QB unless he is grooming someone else. They have a long term developmental QB in Josh Johnson, but I think they will go with someone more polished who can possibly be ready to take the job over by mid-season.

20. Detroit Lions (from Dallas Cowboys) - James Laurinaitis, MLB - Ohio State; The Lions grab the last of the top three middle linebackers in the draft at #20 spot with little or no drop off in talent, but at a significantly cheaper contract than they would have been stuck with had they taken Aaron Curry with the #1 pick.

21. Philadelphia Eagles - Eben Britton, T - Arizona; The Eagles have two first round picks. Their biggest needs are at T and RB. A stud RB will still be available at #28, and probably even in the second round. Accordingly, they go with the best available tackle left in the draft.

22. Minnesota Vikings - Hackeem Nicks, WR - North Carolina; Minnesota has a solid defense, a great offensive line, and the best running back in the league. With Sage Rosenfel now in the mix, he needs another target to throw to.

23. New England Patriots - Clay Mathews, OLB - USC; New England filled their secondary holes with Lee Bodden & Shawn Springs. The Pats always need LB's in their 3-4 defense, and especially this year since they are aging at that position. Clay Mathews should be able to step in and contribute right away, assuming that the reports of a positive steroid test at the Combine are unfounded as was recently reported by that event's drug testing agency.

24. Atlanta Falcons - Vontae Davis, DB - Illinois; While the ATL would love to add a pass catching TE, one can be had in the second round. With a drop in secondary talent somewhere between Vontae Davis and D.J. Moore, Davis could be the man, again assuming reports of a positive drug test at the Combine are untrue.

25. Miami Dolphins - Darius Butler, CB - UConn; Miami could use a WR, but will be better served drafting the safest CB in this year's draft.

26. Baltimore Ravens - Brandon Pettigrew, TE - OK St; With a run taking the top linebackers off the board by the time the Ravens pick, they elect to go with with a complete tight end who can block and catch. Another need is at WR.

27. Indianapolis Colts -Peria Jerry, DT - Ole Miss; Jerry would be a nice start to bolstering a defense that really struggled against the run last season.

28. Philadelphia Eagles (from Carolina Panthers) - Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB - Ohio State; Beanie gives the Eagles a between the tackles and goal line back to compliment Brian Westbrook.

29. New York Giants - Kenny Britt, WR - Rutgers; With Plaxico Burress' officially having been cut, the Giants desperately need to develop a big time receiver in order to get back to being a Super Bowl caliber team. Britt appears to have the size and hands to eventually replace Plax, assuming the G-men don't land someone like Chad Johnson via a trade before the draft.

30. Tennessee Titans - Alphonso Smith, CB - Wake Forrest - Is it too early for Tennessee to draft the next best DT, which is obviously a need in light of the loss of Albert Haynesworth? Someone like Ziggy Hood could definitely be an option. Larry English, Paul Kruger and Michael Johnson are also considerations at DE. However, Smith might be too good to pass up in light of the Titans losing Chris Carr and Eric King at CB in free agency.

31. Arizona Cardinals - Larry English, DE - Northern Illinois: Arizona needs a RB, but should be able to get someone in the second round with "Shady" McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Shonne Green, Donald Brown, and Andre Brown all still on the board. Pass rush is now their biggest need with the defection of Antonio Smith to the Texans. Larry English is from a small school, but was a big time producer.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers - Max Unger, C-G - Oregon; The Steelers could upgrade their line depth with Unger, or they could solidify their defensive backfield with someone like D.J. Moore or Alphonso Smith in order to replace Bryant McFadden, although I hear that the Steelers are happy with William Gay as his replacement. Still, they could use some depth at the CB position, so they will likely go with the best availble player at either OL and DB with the last pick in the first round.

ANTM Cycle 12 - Makeovers!!!!

I know that I'm a few episodes behind. I'm going to burn my Tivo and get caught up as quick as I can. But let's take some time and go over the best episode of every cycle, the makeover! Here is a brief overview of what Tyra had in mind for each of the girls:

Jessica - Sensing that she needed an "edge," Tyra took her short and red.

Sandra - The nasty mohawk is gone. Sandra immediately embraced her shaved blond look to compliment her ivory African smile.

Allison - She was told that she deserved to have big blond hair to compliment "those eyes, those eyes, those eyes!"

Nijah - Her weave was exaggerated.

Fo - Given that "cute doesn't cut it" for a model, they cut Fo's hair off. This caused Fo to be the model that had the meltdown over her new look.

Celia- With her hair in the way of her cheekbones, they made her a short platinum blond, causing her to proclaim that she was "liberated."

Aminat - They took out her "weave-fro" in favor of a more "Naomi like" weave. Comedy ensued when Ms. Jay wore her old weave like a boa in a fake runway walk.

Kourtnie - In spite of her fake tan she was made a red, which blended in perfectly with her NASCAR groupie neck.

London - They took her to a short platinum blond, which I have to say totally transformed her into a contender.

Natalie - After freaking out when she was told they were going to cut her hair, she was told that they liked her just the way they found her. They should have shaved the bitch bald just to spite her.

Teyona - Tyra decided that she needed some Jerry Curl in her life (to make her more black???), only to decide by the end of the episode that it didn't work and that she would need a redo.

Tahlia - Went from brown to a big blond weave.

After the makeovers, the girls had a "light yourself and find the camera" photo shoot in which they were to self direct and shine hand held lights on themselves. Teyona, in spite of her Jerry Curls, nailed her pose and finished first. Celia was called second after overshadowing the primary models when she posed in the background and "just getting it" when she was the primary model. Allison finished a solid third for her unique look and ability to find the camera.

The final two models called were Fo and Jessica. This was one of ANTM's classic wake-up calls, as Fo was taken to task for having a meltdown over her new look while all the Judges felt that it only enhanced her ability to compete. On the other hand, Jessica's beauty was just not showing through in her photographs, and she was sent home.

ANTM Cycle 12- A Black On Black Cryin' Shame

Well, it's time for another cycle of America's Next Top Model. This season starts off with 34 applicants in Las Vegas, who will be narrowed down to 21, and then 13 before the finalists get to move on to New York City. Starting off at Caesar's Palace, the show went with a "Goddess of Fierce" theme.

Upon arriving, the girls were immediately asked to dress up in gold strapped heels, a white goddess dress, and show their goddess runway walk to help narrow the field down to 21. There was no real surprises in the cut down to 21, as of 34 initial applicants the camera really only gave air time to about 3 of the girls who ended up getting cut, and they were mainly the odd-balls like Monique, the "conspiracy theorist" who believes that FDR staged the Pearl Harbor attack so the U.S. could get involved in World War II. While she referred to herself as a "killer poser," when asked to demonstrate that skill her poses seemed as if she was leaning against a wall in a crooked room.

So as the girls headed towards the cut down from 21 to 13 with a "goddess" photo shoot, I have to say that one of the things that I most look forward to in America's Next Top Model is the inevitable dynamic when the A-type personality African American girls gang up on scared naive white girls from small towns and make them cry for their insensitive and ignorant comments. I mean, who DOESN'T love seeing a racist girl with an eating disorder in tears? This dynamic is not just unique to America's Next Top Model, as Coral from MTV's the Real World has proven that one can make a career out of it if you are bad-ass enough. Hell, a former Top Model contestant even pulled it off in real life when the cameras weren't rolling, so it can't just be for the publicity. http://www.buddytv.com/articles/americas-next-top-model/former-americas-next-top-model-21727.aspx
So imagine how shocked I was when in one of the pre-cut down photo shoots, the two A-type African American girls went after each other! Remember girls, united we stand and divided we fall. Anyway, here's some excerpts of how it went down:

Angelea, who desperately wants to make it out of the mean streets of Buffalo and avenge her daughter's death, rolled her eyes during Sandra's photo shoot. Sandra, who is initially from Kenya, immediately confronted Angelea and called her a "long nail (referring to her Flo-Jo's), you don't have any class whatsoever, so, therefore I do not have no time for you!" Out of desperation, Angelea tried to hit Sandra with a, "bitch you got ugly ass corns" while pointing at her feet. After they traded dueling "talk to the hands" at point blank range, Angelea had to go directly to her photo shoot where she was asked to pose as the "goddess of love." Sandra smirked as it was clear that their fight clearly broke Angelea's focus. Breaking down in tears, Angelea stated to the camera, "Sandra, she knows I'm competition, that's why she's trying to pull my buttons.....I don't want people to think I'm just this ghetto-ass, ghetto-fied, you know, low class bitch who don't care." Meanwhile, Sandra was all smiles. Guess who didn't make it past the cut down for the final 13?

And without further adieu, here is a quick overview of the girls who made it to the final 13:

Aminat - "The Amazonian." At 6'1 and in 4 inch heels, she took it to new heights with her self proclaimed 3 inch 'fro.

Natalie - "The rich girl." She declared that her family is rich and that she has never worried about money. Jay loved her "legs and length," so I guess that makes up for her everyone hating her for her personality.

Fo - "The blaxican." A self described hippie tree-hugger of of black and Mexican descent. Her brilliant freckles remind me of when I was a young "blaxican" model, making her one of my early favorites. She was once told as a child that "someone got a screen and just threw dog poop on (her) face." I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that she has a quick wit about her. She also needs your support. http://theredmieni.blogspot.com/2009/02/my-plea-to-save-albinos.html

Tahlia - "The burn survivor." A swimsuit pose revealed burn scars all over her stomach and legs. Her confidence and cheek bones should get her through the first few competitions in spite of her obvious limitations due to her scars.

Celia - "The Kentucky woman." She was absolutely hideous looking in a childhood photo that they showed, and she's not that pretty now, but she looks weird and seems like a trouble maker. My guess is that she'll stick around for a while if I know my Top Model.

Nijah - "The Prom Queen." Not much really stood out about Nijah. A middle of the packer.

London -The "street preacher." This girl loves telling random people about Jesus. I just can't wait to see how she reacts at their first semi-nude photo shoot.

Allison - "The porcelain doll." She has a self described obsession with hemophilia and nose-bleeds (apparently she has never had one). When Tyra declared that she used to get nose-bleeds all the time, Allison's creepy doll eyes grew two sizes as she excitedly blurted out, "JEALOUS!" Her unique look will make her a strong contender if she is able to pose for the camera at all. I just hope that for the love of street preachers none of the girls get their period while she is still in the house or things might get ugly.

Teyona - "The dreadneck." An African-American country girl/tomboy from New Jersey who is just now realizing that she is pretty. Ms. Jay loved the elegance of her face. She seems like she'll get along with everyone.

Kourtnie - "The plus-sized NASCAR groupie." She once dated Dale Earnhardt, Jr., who is perhaps the biggest redneck on the planet. Apparently NASCAR fans accused her of being a groupie. All I can say is that if you are at the ass end of a relationship with Dale Earnhardt, Jr., well.....NEXT!

Isabella - "The epileptic." Isabella is on medication for grand mal seizures. As Tyra said in one of her Tyra voices, "I just want to buy cornflakes from her, but model fierce cornflakes." I have no fucking idea what that meant.

Jessica - "The Puerto Rican." Ms. Jay says that she has perfect skin, but don't we all.

Sandra - "The go-dess." Not only is she cocky and mean, but Tyra loves her dark complexion, calling her "straight out of a British fashion show." She also apparently has some sort of bone above her eye that all models should aspire to have, and that all women from California should try to replicate through plastic surgery. It is clear that Sandra is going out of her way to be this cycle's villain.


So as we move to hour two of the season premier of Cycle 12, we learn that the girls will be living in the Empire State Building. Fo notes her fear of heights and describes becoming nauseous on their 80 story elevator ride (I think I'm in love). The contestants learn that there are only 12 beds for 13 girls, and Sandra is the odd girl out until London volunteers to sleep on the floor since she loves Jesus and all. She also notes that she is confident that she will be getting a bed back real soon.

The girls compete in a "naughty and nice" runway walk, and then a "beloved childhood" games photo shoot where they are surrounded by "girls gone bad" extras. Sandra proclaims that she nailed her walk, not realizing that she walked only half way down the runway before turning around. At judgment, Allison gets called first for having the best photo, followed by Fo who was the runner up. Isabella, who was described as looking like "a little person" at her photo shoot (and the panel was absolutely correct in that statement), was one of the last two models called and put up for elimination. After receiving comments that her runway walk was "the biggest disappointment," and that her photo shoot was disappointing too, Sandra was also left on the block. Sandra got a wake-up call and was spared from elimination, but was told to be more creative. Perhaps she should work on scaring some white bitches next week.

After watching the first hour of the episode (up until the girls left for New York), I had already chosen Fo and Allison as the girls that I'm pulling for. Sandra is the obvious villain, and Celia has the potential to step into that role as well, although she blended in more than I thought she would after the initial cut-downs. There were a lot of girls who didn't get too much camera time this week, so I'll probably pick another girl or two to follow more closely in the upcoming weeks.

We also learned that ANTM is casting for Cycle 13, with the unique twist that you have to be 5'7 or under to apply. You wanna be on top?

Pre-Combine NFL Mock Draft

The NFL draft is absolutely my favorite "non-sporting" sport event of the year.

I guess that is because I am a loyal fan of the Detroit Lions, who have pretty much been the worst team in pro football for the past decade.

When your favorite team has won only one playoff game in the last 50 years and become the first team in history to finish a season 0-16, draft day is kind of like your Super Bowl and Christmas all rolled up into one. It becomes even more exciting when you have the first pick in the entire draft, as well as two other picks in the first 33.

This year I intend to post three mock drafts, one before the NFL Scouting Combine, one shortly after the NFL Scouting Combine, and a final one on draft day.

I consider myself a draft researcher, not a prognosticator. I try to get as much information as possible from credible "inside" sources in determining what player and position a team will pick. I don't pretend to be a team's GM and substitute my own judgment for whom I think they should draft.

With that being said, I really don't start doing my homework until after the Combine, so my pre-Combine mock draft IS going to be my attempt to play GM and select the player that I think each team should take. My post Combine drafts will be more of an educated prediction based upon research that I perform.

I will begin my first mock draft with a detailed analysis of the #1 pick for the Detroit Lions, in part because they are my favorite team, and in part because my analysis of the Lions kind of summarizes how a team should develop it's draft strategy for value, need, and managing the salary cap.

1. Detroit Lions - Due to their poor record and a sweet deal in the Roy Williams trade, the Lions hold picks #1, #20 and #33 in this year's draft. While many draft guru's have the Lions taking a QB like Georgia's Matt Stafford with the #1 pick, I am of the firm belief that a team should never take a quarterback with a high first round draft pick. Here's why.

An extremely high number of first round quarterbacks have turned out to be busts, so drafting one is anything but a sure thing. When you are a poor team like the Detroit Lions that hasn't had a winning record in almost a decade and has a disenfranched fan base, you simply cannot afford to gamble on taking a quarterback high in the first round. This is especially true when you have the #1 overall pick.

While many NFL General Managers don't want to be known as the guy who passed up the next Peyton Manning, it is a much smarter strategy to avoid being the General Manager who drafted the next Ryan Leaf....unless of course you are actually looking for a player who can't play quarterback in the NFL, throws temper tantrums during routine media interviews, and runs and hides in a closet after mouthing off to the team strength and conditioning coach.

If you draft a quarterback early in the draft you essentially turn the fate of your franchise over to an unproven commodity. This is true because a top ten QB is going to sign a 4-5 year "rookie" contract, which carries with it a huge sum of guaranteed money even before that player ever takes a snap in an NFL game. Accordingly, if that quarterback is a bust like former quarterbacks that the Lions selected in the first round such as Joey Harrington, Andre Ware, or Chuck Long, the franchise will be unable to cut or trade him without taking a huge salary cap hit.

This causes upper management to force their coaches to no only keep, but play these highly drafted quarterbacks out of financial necessity and PR concerns, thereby locking a team into poor quarterback play for 4-5 years.

THAT my friends, is the quickest way to cripple a franchise. So if you are going to draft a quarterback high in the first round, you BETTER be drafting a sure thing, for which of course there is no such thing. The far safer choice is to draft a quarterback to develop in second through seventh rounds, or try to find a castoff QB from another franchise who was pushed aside in favor of a highly paid rookie or was simply in a bad offensive system.

With that being said, the Lions have a lot of needs. Many pundits have them taking a left tackle. I have no disagreement with that strategy in general, as I'd love to see them upgrade over Jeff Backus. However, this is a very deep draft at left tackle, and the Lions have already invested a great deal of salary cap space in last year's first rounder (RT - Gosder Cherilus) and their incumbent starter at LT (Backus), who is making "franchise player" money.

So, since this draft is so deep at LT, wouldn't it be more wise to wait until pick #33 and take one of the less heralded but equally talented LT's with the first pick in the second round? That way, instead of committing another $7 million per year (as the #1 pick in the draft will receive) to the tackle position, you could still get a replacement for Backus (and move Backus to guard in order to fill another need) for about $5 million less per year than you would have at the #1 pick.

The Lions also have needs at MLB and OLB. Jordon Dizon, last year's second round pick, could potentially fill either one of those starting positions. So with Rey Malaualuga, James Laurinitis, AND Aaron Curry all projected as solid first rounders, this COULD be the position that the Lions look at with the first pick of the draft.

However, we must once again look at value, in that there is a reasonable chance that one of the three aforementioned linebackers will still be available when the Lions draft at #20 with the pick they obtained from Dallas in the Roy Williams trade. Accordingly, I'd refrain from drafting a LB at #1 unless there simply is not a talent at any other position that warrants the #1 pick, in which case I'd take Curry.

The Lions definitely need one, if not TWO starting cornerbacks. However, I do not see any corners coming into the draft who are worthy of the #1 pick. Taking a corner at #20 and/or #33 is a definite possibility. However, if I was running the Lions I think I'd try to find a bargain or two at at the cornerback position with their two third round picks, or at least fill one of those voids with free agents like former Lion Dre Bly or Drayton Florence through free agency.

Defensive line is another big priority for the Lions. While they have an abundance of defensive ends, they do not have a clear cut superstar who can rush the passer.

However, instead of investing at that position early in this year's draft (giving them five defensive ends in a rookie first rounder, former second rounder Ikaika Alama-Francis, last year's leading sacker Dewayne White, steady back-up Jared DeVries, and quickly developing Cliff Avril), they may want to wait a year and see if Avril can step up and handle the pass rush responsibilities on the ever so important left side. This would allow Dewayne White to move back to his more natural position on the right.

Unless the Lions switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defensive front, I just can't see them taking another defensive end unless someone like Brian Orakpo of Texas REALLY stands out at the Combine as a talent worthy of the #1 pick.

If no defensive end distinguishes himself at the Combine, the Lions could still look to bolster their defensive line by taking a defensive tackle. B.J. Raji of Boston College could be that guy. Scouts have generally raved about his overall performance and practices at this year's Senior Bowl. Since no other top interior linemen are available in this year's draft, there will be a huge talent drop off from Raji to the next best available option, meaning that the Lions might not have the ability to adequately address their hole at DT with one of their many picks later in the draft.

By all accounts, the Lions are going to identify about three potential picks for the #1 slot and begin negotiating with all three in hopes of getting the "best deal" signed before the draft. With that being said, IF Raji doesn't demand the money that the #1 pick would traditionally command (which would be a bad move on his part because he could fall to as far as #6 to Cincinnati if the Lions don't draft him), I think he really just might end up being the Lion's guy. Especially since they desperately need somebody to help them against the run after trading gifted defensive tackle Shawn Rogers to Cleveland last year.

2. St. Louis Rams - Andre Davis - T, University of Alabama; The Rams need a tackle to compliment and then replace the aging Orlando Pace.

3. Kansas City Chiefs - Brian Orakpo - DE, Texas; After trading DE Jared Allen to Minnesota last season, the Chiefs former Defensive Coordinator talked about how much Allen was missed. Accordingly, the Chiefs go with the draft's best available defensive end, who's value could explode after the Combine.

4. Seattle Seahawks - Aaron Maybin - DE, Penn St.; With Orakpo off the board, the Seahawks go for a pure pass rusher to compliment OLB Julian Peterson.

5. Cleveland Browns - Malcolm Jenkins - CB, Ohio State; If the Browns don't address their need for a cornerback in free agency, they could look in-state and take the best cover corner in the draft.

6. Cincinnati Bengals - Jason Smith - OT, Baylor; The Bengals have needed a DT for years. They would love for Detroit to pass on Raji. Unfortanately they don't, so the Bengals go with a stud tackle to sure-up their offensive line and help re-establish a running game.

7. Oakland Raiders - Jeremy Maclin, WR - Missouri; The Raiders need a wide receiver, and Al Davis LOVES speed. Seems like the perfect fit.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars - Eugene Monroe, OT - Virginia; Sadly, The Jags could use another receiver, but they simply cannot waste another pick on that position since R.J. Soward, Reggie Williams, and Matt Jones were all busts or disappointments. Even Jerry Porter, their big free agent signing at that position last season did not work out and was released after the season. In spite of their wide reciever woes, what really devastated this team last year was injuries to the offensive line, which ended up killing their signature running attack. Eugene Monroe just might be the best tackle in this year's draft.

9. Green Bay Packers - Everett Brown, DE - Fla. St.; Brown is a highly rated pass rusher who probably fits best in a 3-4 defensive scheme, which conveniently the Packers are switching to this season.

10. San Francisco 49'ers - Michael Crabtree, WR - Texas Tech; The 49'ers are badly in need of a WR. Isaac Bruce doesn't have much left in the tank, and rumors are already floating that they will cut ties with Bryan Johnson. If Crabtree falls this far, he will certainly be a 49'er next year.

11. Buffalo Bills - Brandon Pettigrew, TE - Oklahoma State; The experts already seem to have this pick locked in, even though I HATE drafting tight ends in the first round given that they rarely change games the way teams envision when they draft them.

12. Denver Broncos - Aaron Curry, OLB - Wake Forrest; Denver desperately needs to upgrade their defense after underachieving last season and making salary cap cuts this off season. Curry would be a steal at the #12 spot, as he just might be the best defensive player in draft.

13. Washington Redskins - Micheael Oher, OT - Ole Miss; Washington's offensive line is aging and seems to experience a season ending injury to a key player every season. Youth and depth prevail as the 'Skins go with the last top tier tackle on the board.

Also, while we're at it, many people consider the team name "Redskins" to be offensive to Native Americans. Without going into the merits of that debate, I think I have a solution that would not only preserve the history of the franchise, but at the same time would show some respect to Native Americans.

Since the early to mid 1980's, Washington's offensive line has affectionately been dubbed "The Hogs." In fact, many of their fans dress up in pig noses and masks much like Cleveland fans dress in dog costumes to salute the section of their stadium known as "the dog pound."

So, why doesn't Washington just change their team name to the Pigskins? That way they can still call themselves the "'Skins," their new team name would refer to some classic football terminology, it would fit in with the franchise's history, and it would serve as a tribute to their fans.

Plus they could come up with a cool new logo for marketing purposes. It seems to me like this would be a win win situation. I'd definitely be interested in buying some "Pigskin" merchandise.

14. New Orleans Saints -Vontae Davis, CB - Illinois; Even if Mike McKenzie is healthy, the Saints are in dire need of another lock down corner without excess salary cap room to sign even a mid-level free agent. Vontae Davis would be be a big upgrade to their secondary at a relatively inexpensive price compared to other options.

15. Houston Texans -Larry English, DE/OLB - Northern Illinois.; By all accounts the Texans want a pass rusher to compliment Mario Wiliams. English makes sense in a "3-4" scheme as the pass rushing OLB.

16. San Diego Chargers - Rey Malaualuga, MLB - USC; The thought of Rey Malaualuga and a healthy Shawn Merriman playing together is downright frightening. The Chargers could also go RB, but only if they cut Ladainlian Tomlinson given that they just committed franchise player money to Darren Sproles for the upcoming season.

17. New York Jets - Matt Stafford, QB - Georgia; With Brett Favre retiring, they need to bring in a quarterback to compete with Kellen Clemens. With Detroit passing of Stafford he ends up with the Jets, who likely have to trade up to take him.

18. Chicago Bears - Percy Harvin, WR - Florida; The Bears need a playmaker at WR. Enter Harvin to take some of the pressure off of Devin Hester, who is more of a playmaker than a true receiver.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -Mark Sanchez, QB - USC; With Jeff Garcia seemingly out after this season, and with Tampa cutting ties with former quarterback of the future Chris Simms after last season, the Bucs take the other top QB in this year's draft.

20. Detroit Lions (from Dallas Cowboys) - James Laurinaitis, MLB - Ohio State; The Lions grab the last of the top three linebackers in the draft at #20 spot with little or not drop off in talent, but a significantly cheaper contract than they would have been stuck with had they taken Aaron Curry with the #1 pick.

21. Philadelphia Eagles - LeSean (Shady) McCoy, RB - Pitt; The best way for the Eagles to improve their team is to improve their goal line running game. Not only will McCoy be able to take on some of Bryan Westbrook's work load so the Eagles' primary playmaker stays healthy, but he very well might be the best running back who comes out of this year's draft.

22. Minnesota Vikings - Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR - Maryland; Minnesota has a solid defense, a great offensive line, and the best running back in the league. The only things they are lacking are a reliable quarterback and impact receivers. Josh Freeman, the QB out of Kansas State could also be a possibility if they decide to go with their other position of need.

23. New England Patriots - D.J. Moore, CB - Vanderbilt; New England finally fills the huge hole in their secondary that was left when Assante Samuel went to Philadelphia in free agency after last season.

24. Atlanta Falcons - Jared Cook, TE - South Carolina; Atlanta would like to give QB Matt Ryan a weapon at tight end to throw to. Cook is a freak in terms of size, speed and hands. He may be a reach at #24, but a TE of his caliber will not be around when Atlanta picks in the second round.

25. Miami Dolphins - Paul Kruger, DE - Utah; Miami could use a DE to make up for the loss of Jason Taylor after his trade to Washington last year.

26. Baltimore Ravens - Brian Cushing, OLB - USC; With three linebackers either free agents or under the franchise tag, Baltimore could certainly stand to re-stock at that position. If they are able to sign even two of their three free agent linebackers before the draft, a cornerback like Wake Forrest's Alfonso Smith could be a nice value at pick #26 and fill another big need.

27. Indianapolis Colts - Peria Jerry, DT - Ole Miss; Jerry would be a nice start to bolstering a defense that really struggled against the run last season.

28. Philadelphia Eagles (from Carolina Panthers) - Tyson Jackson, DE - LSU; After filling a big need with a "between the tackles" runner with their first pick in round one, they use their bonus pick in the first round to add some firepower to their pass rush.

29. New York Giants - Hackeem Nicks, WR - North Carolina; With Plaxico Burress' future in doubt after shooting himself in the leg (literally), the Giants desperately need to develop a big time receiver in order to get back to being a Super Bowl caliber team.

30. Tennessee Titans - Micheal Johsnon, DE - Georgia Tech; Too good to pass up if he is available at #30. He could shoot up to the top half of the first round with a good Combine. If Albert Haynesworth leaves in free agency, the Titans will be desperately searching for a defensive tackle with this pick.

31. Arizona Cardinals - Knowshon Moreno, RB - Georgia: Arizona's offense was explosive last year even without a consistent running game. A back like Knowshon Moreno or Shonn Greene of Iowa would represent an improvement over "Edge" James, who hasn't run hard in years. Offensive tackle could also be a consideration.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers - Phil Loadholt, T-G - Oklahoma; Best name for an offensive lineman ever. The Steelers got away with taking skilled position players in Reshard Mendenhall and Limas Sweed (neither of whom made an effective contributin to the team last year) over the guard they needed heading into last year's draft. This year they can take Loadholt and insert him at guard, and in the process improve their goal line running game while grooming him as their right tackle of the future.

Alphonso Smith would also meet a need and be tough to pass up as a value if he were still available at this point, with the Steelers still being able to address the interior of their offensive line in the second round. Max Unger of Oregon could also be on the board, so the Steelers should have plenty of choices with the last pick of the first round.

Save the Albinos!

Personally, I find these links very disturbing:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/27/health/27glob.html?_r=1

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9501E5D7133CF93AA35751C0A961958260&scp=6&sq=&st=nyt

I promise you all that my hair will not bring you luck on your fishing expeditions. In fact, I am one of the worst fishermen ever. I once went fishing and my dog insisted on jumping in the water and swimming behind my canoe. I ended up hooking him by his collar. This was very humiliating for both my dog and myself. I also assure you that I will not just up and "fade away" one day, but I will instead die a regular and undistinguished death like the rest of you. Finally, I can attest that most of my body parts do not have superpowers, and I really really need the one that does. So I beg you all, please leave my child and I alone!

Oscar Predictions From a Guy Who Doesn't Watch Movies

I don’t pretend to be a Hollywood insider. In fact, I don’t even watch movies anymore. I pretty much stopped watching movies/DVD's when Hollywood studios began trying to out “special effect” each other in order to overcompensate for bad writing and a lack of original ideas. Let’s just call this "the George Lucas syndrome."

So why the hell do I want to take a shot at predicting some of the major award winners at this year’s Oscars? As my four year old son would over enunciate, “I - don’t - know.”

Maybe it is a cross between arrogance and masochism. In any event, my formula for predicting this year's Oscar winners is based upon a combination of word of mouth, watching trailers/reading movie posters, and my own personal analysis of how Hollywood works. Shall I give this a shot? Yo soy!

Best Actress:

This is a rather weak group in my mind. In spite of the buzz about the personalities and personal lives of some of the nominated actresses, I have not heard anybody talk about any of their specific performances. Accordingly, I am looking at this as more of a popularity contest.

This is kind of like a high school Homecoming Court. You end up nominating the most popular girl from each clique in school and let the masses sort it out. And let’s face it, many of these Hollywood types never went to conventional school to begin with, so these award shows really do serve as their homecoming dances and proms.

The "hottest girl in school" (Angelina Jolie) almost always gets nominated. While the "hottest girl in school" gets a lot of support just for being hot, everyone knows that she still has a lot of personality flaws and simply doesn't deserve to win the honor. The fact that she is not deep enough to win secretly devastates the "hottest girl in school," so she spends the next year overcompensating by getting tattoos, dating older men, and/or adopting children from all over the world.

The Homecoming Court also always nominates the prettiest girl from the academic/student council circle (Meryl Streep). While she has been an upstanding member of the school for years and really can do no wrong in the eyes of her peers, unless she did something before the big dance that just blew everyone away, like writing an article in the school paper exposing the gym coach for having a peep hole in the girls locker room, she simply is not going to win. And as far as I know, Meryl didn't break any significant stories about peep holes this year.

The “I really don’t know her, but she’s really kind of cool and hot girl” (Melissa Leo). This is the girl who probably deserves to win. The fact that she is nominated in spite of the fact that most people don’t know really who she is speaks volumes as to how respected she is. Even though only a small group of people really ever get to know her, the conviction of those who do is enough to get her a nomination. While many people secretly think about voting for her, they chicken out at the last second and go with the more talked about “mainstream” choice due to peer pressure, which has been sociologically proven to be stronger than The Force in the context of high school and Hollywood.

While a mainstream girl's world would collapse in the event that they don't win, the “secretly hot girl” can take everything in stride and continue to rock on with her bad-self because she doesn't need or even want the affirmation of popular crowd. Quite simply, this is the girl who will continue to get even hotter after she gets out high school (the Oscar nominated role in question), and you will never find her in the position where she continues to act like a diva after her two to three year run of popularity is over and she has gained a bunch of weight (think any cheerleader that you ever knew in high school or Russell Crowe).

The “perfect couple” girl (Kate Winslet) versus the “Cinderella story” (Anne Hathaway). Kate Winslet is the girl who has been dating the most popular guy in school (let’s call him “Leo”) forever, and has been a regular on the Homecoming Court since her freshman year. She is up against the girl who was held back by bad circumstances like an asshole boyfriend, but she cuts the baggage and wins everyone’s adoration and respect at exactly the right time.

The Winner – Anne Hathaway. Let’s just forget about the fact that everyone in the world knew or should have known that her fiance was crooked before he was formally indicted, and that it would have almost been impossible for her not to have known about his involvement in some shady shit. It’s downright politically incorrect to say anything bad about Anne Hathaway these days. She has become Hollywood's “it girl," and for that reason I cannot envision any scenario where she does not end up riding her present wave of popularity to an Oscar win for Best Actress.

Best Actor:

As far as I can tell there are only three real contenders for this award. When it comes down to it, there are probably only two.

While I have heard people mention Brad Pitt for The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttons, for every person that has told me that the movie was good, there have been two others that have told me that it was horrible. On top of that, I have heard people say that Pitt was not acting at all, but merely playing himself. Not that this disqualifies you from critical acclaim as an actor (see Robert Redford). So while I actually gained a great deal of respect for Brad Pitt after watching his performance as a gypsy in Guy Ritchie’s Snatch, The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttons just wasn’t the right role for Pitt to win the Oscar for Best Actor.

I have heard nothing but great things about Sean Penn’s role as Harvey Milk in the movie Milk. I am currently reading the book And The Band Played On by Randy Shilts. Not only does that book make reference to Harvey Milk in a historical context, but it examines some of the social issues that he stood up for in a parallel look at that era from a public health perspective. Needless to say, the role of Harvey Milk was destined to be pure gold for whatever actor landed it.

It is no secret that one of the quickest ways for an actor to gain critical acclaim in Hollywood has been to play a character who is mentally retarded. Just look at Dustin Hoffman's role in Rainman, Leonardo Dicaprio’s role in What’s Eating Gilbert Grape?, Johnny Depp’s role in Benny and June, Tom Hank’s role in Forrest Gump, Billy Bob Thorton's role in Sling Blade, and Chris Burke's role as “Corky” on Life Goes On.

Ultimately, people figured out that playing someone who is mentally retarded may actually be one of the easiest roles that there is....that is, aside from actors like Tom Cruise and Robert Redford who play versions of themselves" in virtually every movie that they are in. So something had to give, right? I mean there are only so many compelling stories that can be told about the mentally challenged, right? Well it has already happened….Gay is the new retard in Hollywood right now.

A straight actor who takes on the role of a homosexual is almost guaranteed to receive critical acclaim. It's like when the purportedly caucasian C. Thomas Howell played an African-American in Soul Man, only completely the opposite in terms of respect and perceptions of biggotry. Just look at Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal in Brokeback Mountain, Mathew Broderick in Bonfire of the Vanities, and Tom Hanks in Philadelphia.


I would like to note that Hanks won back to back Oscars in 1993 and 1994 for playing someone who is gay (Philadelphia) and someone who is mentally retarded (Forrest Gump). So here is some food for thought....is Tom Hanks really that great of an actor, or was his agent just ahead of the curve on Hollywood's formula for success?).

Of course, this formula only works for seemingly STRAIGHT actors. If Alexis Arquette, Neil Patrick Harris, Orlando Bloom, or Tim Robbins were to play a gay character they would not receive any sort of critical acclaim unless they outperformed their personal lives in terms of their acting.

That scenario would be akin to Tom Cruise playing a version of himself in movies like All the Right Moves, Cocktail, Top Gun and, well, every other movie that he's ever been in. Were those roles enjoyable? Yes. Did I like watching to Cruise dance around the house in his underwear? Yes (secretly). Were any of those performances Oscar worthy? Of course not.

So with all this being said, Sean Penn’s career will be positively impacted by his role in Milk regardless of whether or not he gets the Oscar, and he's a definite contender for this year's award for Best Actor.

People loved the movie Rocky. In fact, it even won as Oscar. It is about a white fighter who seemingly squandered his talent, but realizes his true potential and puts it all together at the end of his career. Essentially, based upon his performance in the movie The Wrestler, Mickey Rourke is a REAL LIFE version of Rocky.

Despite a wealth of potential and talent early in his film career, Rourke seemingly squandered it by chasing booze and women, taking on soft-core porn like roles, and walking away from acting in order to become a mediocre semi-pro boxer. Then, just when you think he is old and washed-up, he sells his soul and body in order to come back for his role in The Wrestler.

From what I have heard from people in the pro wrestling industry, Rourke completely bought into the lifestyle (think performance enhancing drugs, pain pills and plastic surgery). In fact, you can argue that Mickey Rourke has lived his entire life in preparation for his role in The Wrestler.

The Winner – Mickey Rourke for his role in The Wrestler. Not only was he the only guy who could have convincingly played that character, but he also completely bought into his role in terms of mind and body. Think of De Niro's weight gains/lossess for films, but with long term health risks.

While Sean Penn purportedly nailed his role as Harvey Milk, Mickey Rourke actually BECAME The Wrestler. I don't know if the fact that Rourke has subsequently been asked to perform at one of pro wrestling's bigger events shows that he nailed the role so well that he has been accepted as brethren, or whether it cheapens his success. I'm going with a combination of both.

In any event, Rourke delivered the acting performance of his lifetime in becoming The Wrestler, while Sean Penn will eventually find other roles like those that he landed in I am Sam and Milk. In fact, I am pretty certain that he and Tom Hanks have the same agent. On the other hand, this was a once in a lifetime chance for Mickey Rourke, which he promptly capitalized on by by challenging Bai Ling to a race to see who could give the other a sexually transmitted disease first.

Best Picture:

I think it will come down to Milk against Slumdog Millionaire for the Best Picture award. I hear that Slumdog was amazing. It had so much "feel good" buzz about it that it was my original choice to win the award for Best Picture.

My biggest problem with Slumdog is that everyone involved with that film appears content just to have received a nomination. For example, when your leading male actor uses a Best Picture nomination in his first real film as a forum to assert that his career goal is to one day "be in a Will Smith movie," even if it is "just a small role," then I just can't take you seriously.

I mean, what if Slumdog won Best Picture and Dev Patel got on stage and said something to that effect during the acceptance speech? Would the Academy even allow that to become even a remote possibility? I'm pretty sure that they would pay D.J. Jazzy Jeff to pull Dev aside as the cast walked to the stage and say, "I know exactly how you feel, but I'm sorry kid, I can't let you go up there." You simply can't have one of your high profile performers lobbying for a Golden Globe type role at the Oscars.

There is simply no chance in hell that Slumdog prevails over an outstanding performance from an established actor like Sean Penn in an incredibly well done film from director Gus Van Sant. Especially not when the Academy knows that their biggest risk is that Sean Penn will give a speech about how happy he is that Barrack Obama is rectifying the human rights abuses that were committed by the Bush Administration. In fact, they love that kind of stuff.

The Winner - Milk.