Thursday, September 24, 2009

2009 NFL PICKS - Week 3


Week 2 NFL Results: 6-10
NFL Results Season to Date: 13-18

Week 2 College Football Results: 4-2
College Football Results Season to Date: 11-5

Week 2 This Is Why Results: 4-1
This is Why Results Season to Date: 4-1

Week 3 NFL Picks (winners in parentheses):

Wash -6 At Detroit (Detroit)
Green Bay -6.5 At St. Louis (Green Bay)
At Minnesota -6.5 San Fran (San Fran)
At New England -4.5 Atlanta (Atlanta)
At Jets -2.5 Tenn (Tenn)
At Philly -9.5 Kansas City (Philly)
At Balt -13 Cleve (Balt)
At Houston -4 Jacksonville (Houston)
NYG -7 At Tampa (NYG)
Chicago -2 At Seattle (Chicago)
New Orleans -6 At Buffalo (New Orleans)
Pitt -4 At Cinci (Cinci)
Denver -2 At Oak (Oak)
At San Diego -6 Miami (Miami)
At Arizona -2.5 Indy (Indy)

Monday Night Football

At Dallas -8.5 Carolina (Carolina)

College Picks

Boise St. -16.5 At Bowling Green (Boise St.)
Florida -21.5 At Kentucky (Florida)
At Utah -14 Louisville (Utah)
Notre Dame -7 At Purdue (Notre Dame)
At Penn St. -9.5 Iowa (Iowa)

This is Why

Here are the pro and college lines that I would put money on, and why:

New Orleans -6 over BUFFALO - Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense is in the Indianapolis/Peyton Manning - New England/Tom Brady mode from a few years back. The Saints will put up 30 plus points and Buffalo's offense will simply be unable to keep up.

Atlanta +4.5 over NEW ENGLAND - Atlanta is underrated, while New England is overrated. Even with Atlanta traveling to Foxboro, New England's inability to stop Michael Turner will keep this one closer than a field goal.

New York Giants -7 over TAMPA BAY - Tampa's only signs of life on offense is on the ground. Look for the Giants to load the box with eight defenders and force Byron Leftwich to beat them. On top of that, Tampa will struggle to stop the Giants running attack. I'd be surprised if the Bucs can stay within 14 points in this game.

Tennessee +2.5 over JETS - The Jets have been surprising under their new coaching staff and rookie quarterback. However, with two weeks of game film to watch, a good team like Tennessee should be able to figure them out and pull off a road win.

Florida -21.5 over KENTUCKY - I just can't see Kentucky's quarterback, Mike Hartline, being able to move the ball against Florida's defense to the extent that will be necessary to keep the Wildcats remotely close in this game.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

2009 NFL PICKS - Week 2


Week 1 NFL Results: 7-8
NFL Results Season to Date: 7-8

Week 1 College Football Results: 7-3
Season to Date: 7-3

Week 2 NFL Picks
(winners in parenthesis):

At KC -3 Oak (Oak)
At Tenn -6.5 Houston (Tenn)
New England -4 At Jets (New England)
At Green Bay -9 Cinci (Green Bay)
Minn -10 At Detroit (Detroit)
At Philly -1.5 New Orleans (New Orleans)
At Atlanta -6 Carolina (Atlanta)
At Wash -9.5 St. Louis (Wash)
At Jacksonville -3 Arizona (Jacksonville)
At San Fran -1.5 Seattle (Seattle)
At Buff -4.5 Tampa (Tampa)
At Denver -3 Cleve (Cleve)
At San Diego -3 Balt (Balt)
Pitt -3 At Chicago (Pitt)
At Dallas -3 NYG (NYG)

Monday Night Football

Indy -3 At Miami (Indy)

College Picks

At Penn St. -29.5 Temple (Penn St.)
At Notre Dame -10 Mich St. (Mich St.)
At Fla -29.5 Tenn (Tenn)
Cal -13 At Minn (Cal)
At Kentucky -13.5 Louisville (Louisville)
At Texas -17 Texas Tech (Texas)

This is Why

Here are the pro and college lines that I would put money on, and why:

ATLANTA -6 over Carolina - Until Jake Delhomme proves that he is back, I am betting heavily on his opponents. It looks like teams will stack the box against D'Angelo Williams and company until Carolina proves that they can once again move the ball through the air.

Pittsburgh -3 over CHICAGO - Pittsburgh is simply a better team. Cutler is yet to gel with his new team, and Chicago's secondary is weak. Look for Big Ben to have a big day.

New York Giants +3 over DALLAS - I know that Dallas has the intangibles with opening their new stadium, but there is still a football game to be played. Tampa Bay ran all over Dallas last week, so look for the Giants to at least cover running behind the best OL in the league.

Michigan State +10 over NOTRE DAME - In spite of a hicup against Central Michigan last week, the Spartans own Charlie Weiss, and they own Notre Dame...especially in South Bend. The Spartans will win this game outright.

Tennessee +29.5 over FLORIDA - I don't like Tennesse, but Eric Berry and company held Florida's offense in check last year. I think 30 or so points is way too much to give up in a rivalry game.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

2009 NFL PICKS - Week 1

NFL Week 1 Betting Line (predicted winners are in parenthesis)
Thursday Night Opener

At Pittsburgh -6 Tennessee (Tenn)

Sunday September 13

At Atlanta -4 Miami (Miami)
At Baltimore -13 Kansas City (Balt)
Philadelphia -1.5 At Carolina (Carolina)
At Cincinnati -4.5 Denver (Cinci)
Minnesota -4 At Cleveland (Minn)
At Houston -4.5 NY Jets (Hous)
At Indianapolis -7 Jacksonville (Jags)
At New Orleans -13 Detroit (N.O.)
Dallas -6 At Tampa Bay (Tampa)
At Arizona -6.5 San Francisco (San Fran)
At NY Giants -6.5 Washington (NYG)
At Seattle -8.5 St. Louis (St. Louis)
At Green Bay -3.5 Chicago (Green Bay)

Monday Night Football

At New England -10.5 Buffalo (New England)
San Diego -9.5 At Oakland (San Diego)

College Picks of the Week
At West Virginia -6.5 East Carolina (W.V.)
At Virginia Tech -19.5 Marshall (Va Tech)
At Northwestern -18 Eastern Mich (N.W.)
At Tenn -8 UCLA (UCLA)
At Texas -33 Wyoming (Texas)
Notre Dame -3.5 At Michigan (Mich)
Pitt -10.5 At Buffalo (Buff)
At Boise St. -36 Miami OH (Boise St)
USC -6.5 At Ohio St. (USC)
At Florida -36.5 Troy (Fla)

2009 NFL Predictions

NFC

East
1. Philly 11-5
2. Giants 11-5
3. Dallas 9-7
4. Wash 7-9

North
1. Green Bay 12-4
2. Minnesota 9-7
3. Chicago 8-8
4. Detroit 6-10

South
1. Atlanta 10-6
2. New Orleans 9-7
3. Carolina 9-7
4. Tampa Bay 6-10

West
1. Arizona 8-8
2. San Fran 7-9
3. Seattle 6-10
4. St. Louis 5-11

NFC Wildcards – Giants and New Orleans
NFC Conference Championship – Green Bay over Philly

AFC

East
1. New England 10-6
2. Miami 9-7
3. Jets 6-10
4. Buffalo 5-10

North
1. Pitt 11-5
2. Balt 10-6
3. Cinci 7-9
4. Cleve 4-12

South
1. Tenn 10-6
2. Indy 9-7
3. Houston 9-7
4. Jacksonville 7-9

West
1. San Diego 11-5
2. Denver 5-11
3. KC 4-12
4. Oakland 3-13

AFC Wildcards – Balt and Indy
AFC Conference Championship – San Diego over Pitt

Superbowl Prediction

Green Bay 27 - San Diego 20

2009 Fantasy Football Rankings


Here are my 2009 fantasy football rankings by position. The underscoring designates a drop off from one tier of players to the next within each respective position.

QuarterbacksBrees
Brady
Rogers
___________
Rivers
P. Manning
McNabb
Romo
___________
Palmer
Cutler
___________
Favre
E. Manning
Roethlisberger
Ryan
Schaub
Pennington
___________
Delhomme
Cassell
Garrard
Hasselbeck
Campbell
Orton
Collins
___________
Quinn
Hill
Bulger
Edwards
Stafford
Leftwich
Flacco

Notes – After the first tier of running backs and wide receivers go off the board, start to look for one of the top tier quarterbacks if you don’t see any value where you are drafting. Getting an Aaron Rodgers in early round 4 would be a steal, but take note that he might not last beyond the late part of round 3. Mark my words, he will have a monster year, so don’t regret reaching a little bit if you need to get him on your roster if you already have one of the top running backs and wide receivers.

Running Backs
Turner
Peterson
_____________
Jones-Drew
D’Angelo Williams
Forte
____________
Slaton
Portis
Chris Johnson
Grant
____________
Barber
Tomlinson
Westbrook
Jacobs
S. Jackson
Gore
____________
Kev. Smith
L. Johnson
T. Jones
R. Brown
McFadden
Lynch
Addai
Rice
____________
L White
Benson
J. Jones
P. Thomas
R. Bush
Parker
Moreno
Hightower
B. Wells
____________
Sproles
F. Jones
Mendenall
Shady McCoy
J. Lewis

Notes – Any of the top two tiers of running backs (the top 5) are must take first round picks. If you cannot get one of the top 5 backs, make sure you get two backs from tiers 3 and 4 as your #1 and #2 running backs, then back them up early with a tier 5 back as your # 3. I love Ryan Grant as an early to mid round sleeper this year. Not only is he in camp and back in shape this year, but Green Bay’s offense should be explosive. I also recommend avoiding older backs like Tomlinson or Westbrook as your #1 running back. Go ahead and take a flyer on either of those guys or one of the more injury prone backs like Gore or S. Jackson as your #2 running back, but don’t pin your hopes for an entire season on one of those older or injury prone players when you could be getting guaranteed points from a much safer pick in the first or second round of your draft.

Wide Receivers
Fitzgerald
Calvin Johnson
R. Moss
_____________
A. Johnson
Jennings
Boldin
R. White
S. Smith (Carolina)
_____________
Owens
Wayne
B. Edwards
Marshall
_____________
Welker
Bowe
Colston
Driver
V. Jackson
Lee Evans
Roy Williams
Chad Johnson
T. Gonzalez
Houshmandzadeh
Bryant
H. Ward
S. Holmes
Berrian
Witten
Gates
Royal
D. Clark
S. Moss
Chris Henry
____________
De. Jackson
L. Moore
Earl Bennett
Walters
Mason
Coles
Ginn
Holt
Britt
Nicks
Hixon

Notes – You almost have to grab one of the top receivers in rounds 1 or 2 given the drop off after the top 5 running backs, especially since I am advocating taking two of the top wide receivers interchangeably with your top 2 running backs (unlike past years where it was almost a must to use your top two or even three picks at the running back position). Calvin Johnson could be the best wide receiver in the game right now…don’t be afraid to take him in the first round if the top five running backs and Fitzgerald are gone. “Megatron” was the # 2 wide receiver in conventional fantasy leagues last year without a decent quarterback throwing to him, and while Stafford is raw, but he has already proven himself better than an “in-shape” Daunte Culpepper. The quarterback position in Detroit cannot be any worse than it was last year, and Johnson still had a monster year. Greg Jennings is not exactly a “sexy” pick, but he is a legitimate #1 wide receiver. He will put up big time numbers this year. Likewise, Anquan Boldin gets over-shadowed by teammate Larry Fitzgerald, but Boldin was actually the better fantasy player last season until he fractured his face, after which he miraculously returned two weeks later and continued to put up big numbers. Donald Driver is another sleeper in Green Bay’s high octane offense this season. If you can, grab him as your #3 receiver.

Tight EndGonzalez
Witten
Gates
Clark
____________
Daniels
____________
Schianco
Carlson
Cooley
Fasano
Olsen
J. Finley
Scheffler
Pettigrew
Shockey
Keller
Winslow
V. Davis

Notes – For the first time ever in fantasy football the tight end position is deep. Ideally, you want to grab any of the four tier 1 tight ends. If a tight end run starts before the pick comes back to you, Owen Daniels is the last solid pick before everyone else becomes interchangeable. If you are forced to pick a tight end rated lower than Daniels, make sure you take two in order to play weekly match-ups. Vincente Schianco and Jeremicheal Finley are my two sleepers. Schianco is already a big time red zone target, which should be appealing to Brett Favre given his reliance on TE’s in the past. Finley is a second year TE with a WR body for Green Bay. Look for him to put up 700 yards and 6-7 TD’s this season.

DefenseBaltimore
Pitt
____________
Philly
NY Giants
____________
San Diego
Tenn
Green Bay

Notes – I’m not a big believer in drafting Defenses early, but if you see a huge talent drop off at the skilled positions around rounds 7 or 8 and can grab either Baltimore or Pittsburgh, do it. In one of my leagues Baltimore’s defense put up numbers comparable with Steven Jackson last season, while defenses rated slightly lower were on par with back up running backs who split carries. That is a fairly substantial drop off. Picking up a top defense early will give you two to three points a game against your weekly competition, while spending a 7th or 8th round pick on a marginal backup running back only takes up space on your bench. San Diego could step into the top tier this year if Merriman recovers from his knee injury, while Green Bay is my sleeper even though they are transitioning from a 4-3 to a 3-4 base given their quality starters and Dom Capers ability to create turnovers.

KickersGostkowski
Akers
Kasay
Elam
Bironas
Crosby
Kaeding
Longwell
K. Brown
Lindell
Stover
Nedney
Vinatieri

Notes – Kickers are a dime a dozen. Don’t waste a pick on one until your very last few picks. Over the years being a leading kicker from the preceding season has had little correlation with how one will score in terms of fantasy points the next. Likewise, if you search the waiver wire around week four or five, you will almost certainly be able to pick up a leading kicker who is on track to become a top five player at that position through the end of the year.